This is Brad Park. He was a quality defenseman forever and although his career was overshadowed by Orr and Potvin, there's little doubt he's among the greatest defensemen in the history of the game.Drafting a Brad Park at the top end of the draft is a no-brainer, but if the defensive prospect isn't elite level then it makes little sense to take the chance. If you pick 6th and end up with Steve Staios, what have you done?
Karl Alzner's scouting report doesn't look like a Brad Park comp. The reports I've read suggest he moves the puck well, has calm feet and is a good skater. His Desjardins' NHLE as a 17-year old (82gp, 3-15-18) fades when compared to Cam Barker at the same age in the same league (82gp, 7-16-23) or Jay Bouwmeester (82gp, 4-21-25).
Perhaps an unfair comparision, but if you're considering taking this player in the top 6 then he better have an impact.
On Bob Stauffer's show the other day, head Oilers scout Kevin Prendergast gave his "top 5" for the upcoming draft:
- Kyle Turris
- Patrick Kane
- Jakub Vorocek
- Karl Alzner
- Sam Gagner
In no specific order. I believe the list is probably an accurate one. Why? With Robin Brownlee no longer writing for the Edmonton Sun (and THAT was a big loss. Seriously) we won't get one this year, but almost every year Brownlee would have an article detailing the 5 or so players the Oilers were interested in taking. It makes sense that the Oilers organization would feed their fanbase hope, and Stauffer's show is as good a replacement as any for the Brownlee articles.
Secondly, it's logical. They have more small, skill guys (Kane, Turris, Gagner) and zero big men (James VanRiesmdyk) which is in keeping with their recent drafts (Cogliano, Schremp) in the first round. Also, they've excluded the Russian, which is in keeping with the Oilers conservative nature re:Russian since the Mikhnov fiasco.
I like the list, save Alzner. There's nothing in his bio and in limited viewings that implies he's going to be a Bouwmeester, and it's extremely unlikely he'd be ready at 20 (even Smid-ready). Prendergast suggested in an interview that he felt Alzner was close to NHL ready, but I can't fathom MacT would add an 18-year old kid to the already young backline currently on the Oilers roster.
Prendergast also implied the Oilers might be willing to deal up to get their man. I believe their man is Turris.
More and more LT I think this draft is going to see the top dozen guys be a real grab bag. Some are going to be big hits. Some are going to be big misses. Gagner I've seen in the top ten but top five? Voracek has dropped in the lastest rankings, no? And so has Couture. Then there's Esposito.
ReplyDeleteI know a lot of guys love Voracek but it just seems to me that this is going to be one of those drafts where your number 2 pick might be a bust and your number 9 might be the star.
I think the Flyers take JVR and then after that we'll see, which to me means the Oilers could move up pretty easily.
And what of Brownlee? Where did he go now?
Don't know how easy it will be to grab Turris. His coach Rick Lanz was quoted in a local paper very recently saying that from talking to scouts, he believes Turris will go 2nd to Philly, if Chicago doesn't grab him first.
ReplyDeleteI don't know - Turris seems a lot closer to Zajac in terms of talent and we all know he went nowhere near top 5 - is this draft really so crappy that a BCHL kid is the #1? I also don't like it that he didn't dominate at the U18 - he wasnt bad - but he was overshadowed by younger guys on the Canadian team. Turris is good but I have more issues with him in the top 5 than Alzner to be honest.
ReplyDeleteKane = rich man's Cogliano - and again I question spending a top 5 pick on him - he has more pure skill than Cogs but is not as fast and very slight.
JVR is interesting but big men like him that are still developing are a risk - he's no sure thing by any stretch of the imagination.
Alzner - well it looks like a 1996 draft to me and Alzner looks like Phillips - guess who was one of the best picks in a mediocre year?
The russian has all sorts of warning signs - avoid at all cost...
Voracek seems the safest bet - tore up the QMJHL after Christmas when he settled into his new situation, was rookie of the year and a leading scorer in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. Damn fine for a 17 year old in a new country. He's also got a great work ethic and isnt afraid of tough places on the ice - he's my pick.
Here's a thought - if we keep #6 and Kane, Turis, Voracek and JVR are gone - would you trade the #6 pick and a young roster guy like Lupul for Redden (assuming he signs a longterm extension upon arrival). I think I would. For me unless Voracek is available I'm very tempted to trade the #6 and a young roster kid for an elite player - then keep the #15 and ANA picks in this seemingly deep but fairly mediocre draft year.
Lupul - Zidlicky would be a better trade of contracts. NSH saves a million and a half to retain their captain, and replaces the Upshall potential with Lupul.
ReplyDeleteTo my eye, Zidlicky looked more valuable than Timonen. Sadly, Poile probably saw that too.
I'm thinking that Turris will not go as high as 1 or 2, but he will definately go if he reaches LA pick, as Lombardi has flown Turris several times to LA to see the team's facilities, let alone the number of times Lombardi has visited him. Lowe and company very well may know that and want to move up and grab him, if that is indeed their intention. Given the difference in points and goals specifically between Turris and Zajac, I think it would be shortsighted to say they will end up similarly in talent.
ReplyDeleteA guy that I think will really surprise a lot of people is Gagner. He was the team's leader in scoring most of the year, but then fell off as Kane was also exploding. Something that most people don't notice though is that he is almost a full 10 months younger than Kane. He could really be the guy to explode the year after he's drafted. Kane is still the flashier pick which is why I think Chicago will take him first.
Flyer GM Holmgren has made some interesting comments after the U18s that seem to suggest they're going to take either Turris or Voracek. He was basically saying that the guy they were looking at might not have had the best tourney, but they have to take into consideration the season he's had overall.
Personally, I'm not sure on who we should draft, but I'm not too worried as I'm getting the feeling BDHS was commenting on, where the parity between players seems to suggest that even within the top10 you're pretty certain to get a good guy. Hopefully we're not the team who drafts the 1 or 2 guys who don't turn out... as usual. The Oilers franchise as of late has been decent at finding 2nd round or later players, but really only have Hemsky to show for the 1st.
I forgot to mention in my defense of Turris that he is one of the youngest players in the draft, if not the youngest. With his physique he definately might be the type to really improve his production as he gets to where most of his peers already are. I've seen a few interviews with him (I know, I'm creepy) and given his lanky frame and freakish hands, I'd say it's a good bet that he will do a decent amount of filling in.
ReplyDeleteUm, what do you mean by "freakish hands"?
ReplyDeleteDoes he have six fingers? No thumbs? Claws?
BDHS:
ReplyDeleteVery, very good hands. Fast and soft.
PDO said...
ReplyDeleteBDHS:
Very, very good hands. Fast and soft.
Too bad happy endings don't win hockey games.
Switching gears here a little - I'm guessing this minor junior route to keep NCAA eligibility is a new phenomenon. Is that correct?
I assume Zajac, Chucko, Cogliano and Turris would have just gone to major junior back in the day. The problem here of course is finding comparables for these players in their draft year. They're really hard to find and the benchmarking is useless.
Personally, I think this is a pure Moneyball issue. It's easy to get wrapped up in a younger player lighting up lesser opposition while simultaneously pointing to his upside. (This is the drafting college kids vs. high school kids thing in Moneyball) Personally, I'd like to draft the guy that's easier to benchmark and who gets the results right now because potential is so often unfulfilled. Projects tend to stay projects.
I haven't seen any of these kids play, but Voracek is way ahead of everyone else in my book.
He's playing against top opposition.
His results are impressive.
He's young in his draft year.
He's Hemsky's statistical doppleganger.
His anecdotes are impressive.
No other draft eligible prospect has this much going for him IMO. I can't see the justification for trading up unless it's for Voracek.
One other thing... I have no idea how much the quality of BCJHL ebbs and flows, but Turris appears to be way ahead of Chucko and Zajac if the leagues are remotely comparable.
ReplyDeleteChucko and Turris are the better comps age-wise and that's just a blowout by the numbers. Turris was well over PPG in his 16 yr old season and then went bonkers in his 17 yr old season. Basically he got his numbers a year before Chucko started to dominate.
Zajac was old for that league. His two seasons were as a 17 yr old and as an 18 yr old. Turris had a higher PPG (2.28 vs. 1.90) and he's 9 months younger than Zajac was in his second BCJHL season.
I assume Zajac, Chucko, Cogliano and Turris would have just gone to major junior back in the day. The problem here of course is finding comparables for these players in their draft year. They're really hard to find and the benchmarking is useless.
ReplyDeleteHull, Kariya, Gomez and Horcoff (off the top of my head, sure there's more) all took the BCHL/NCAA route to the NHL as well.
RiversQ said..
ReplyDeleteToo bad happy endings don't win hockey games.
I don't know about you, but happy endings stopped involving soft hands by the time I was 17. Maybe it's different in Atlanta ;).
RiversQ said..
Switching gears here a little - I'm guessing this minor junior route to keep NCAA eligibility is a new phenomenon. Is that correct?
Correct.
I like Turris. I don't really have good reason for it other than the fact that his numbers blow Zajac and Chuko out of the water, he's already 6' (good reason to believe he can be 6'1" or even 6'2" given his age) and, while he struggled a bit at the U18's - he's only 165 lbs. The guy should be a monster once he puts on another 40 lbs, even if that takes 2 years.
I also don't mind drafting a guy who we can hide in the NCAA for a year anyway, so we don't have to worry about breaking in another rookie.
Voracek is my #1, but Turris is definitely a close #2 in my books.
With all this talk of soft hands, massages and happy endings, are we still talking about hockey?
ReplyDeleteIt's been a rough year LT.
ReplyDeleteCan you blame us?
Really?
Especially us 20-somethings (okay, I'm 19) who had their first taste of success last spring?
Just saying :]
Riv - we've been at each others throat over Smitty this year - but we agree 100% on Voracek. He's got good fundamentals (skating, passing, shooting), cares about defense, and isn't afraid of the tough spots on the ice. Plus as you said he has already demonstrated elite performance at a young age against older opposition. There is just so much less to "project" (aka hope,pray for, imagine) in his development than with Turris.
ReplyDeleteHull, Kariya, Gomez and Horcoff (off the top of my head, sure there's more) all took the BCHL/NCAA route to the NHL as well.
ReplyDeleteAlright thanks boondock. I'm now seeing this was a little more common. Although in the past it seems rare that they were drafted as BCJHL players.
Check this link:
http://letsgodu.blogspot.com/search/label/Hockey%20Alumni
Apparently Doug Berry took a similar route and was a WHA Oiler. Remember him LT?
Hockeydb comfirms Hull, but he's one weird cat, so let's just forget about him. ;)
Gomez played in the BCHL for one year, but then went to the WHL for two years and was drafted after his first year in the WHL with Tri City.
Hockeydb doesn't have BCJHL time for Kariya or Horcoff on there. Nor does the NHLPA site. Strangely enough, TSN does have Kariya's two years with Penticton, but not Horcoff so I wonder if Horcoff's time is documented somewhere else.
Tambellini was a BCHL player as well.
Oh crap. Let's quite messing around:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bchl.bc.ca/leagues/bchl_nhl_players.cfm?leagueid=2393&clientid=1413&link=BCHL
Oh yeah, I forgot Gomez went to the WHL after his year in Surrey. I think Brendan Morrison is another guy who went BCHL/NCAA.
ReplyDeleteI went to most of the games the year Horcoff played in Chilliwack. He tore the league apart as a 17-year old and left for Michigan that summer.
Led the league in scoring with 145 points in 58 games.
http://www.bchl.bc.ca/leagues/bchl_indiv_scoring.cfm?leagueid=2393&clientid=1413&link=BCHL
As an aside, Turris ends up tied for the BCHL playoff scoring lead after playing only 2 of a possible 4 series'.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bchl.bc.ca/leagues/stats_hockey.cfm?leagueid=2393&clientid=1413&link=BCHL
You poor bastards have wandered into one of my areas of madness.
ReplyDeleteIf the draft requirements of today had been around in 1967, almost all of the players in the first round would have been tier 2.
For 1949 borns they included Bobby Clarke (Flin Flon, MJHL), Marc Tardif and Reggie Houle (Thetford Mines, QMJHL), Butch Goring (Winnipeg, MJHL) and Ivan Boldirev (SS Marie, Northern Ontario Junior Hockey League) all would have been first rounders if they eligible age had been 18 instead of 20.
Over the years, there have been examples of quality players in tier 2 (Brent Sutter was an AJHL player, I saw him play for Red Deer in his draft year) but there have probably been under 20 taken in the first round.
From my previous stuff on the subject, a quick and probably incomplete list of the high picks:
1980
17th-Brent Sutter, Red Deer (AJHL)
57th-Troy Murray, St Albert (AJHL)
1981
27th-Dave Donnelly, St Albert (AJHL)
1983
29th-Brad Berry, St Albert (AJHL)
36th-Malcom Parks, St Albert (AJHL)
56th-Perry Berezan, St Albert (AJHL)
1984
27th-Scott Mellany, Henry Carr (OHA-B)
32nd-Tony Hrkac, Orillia (OPJHL)
1985
42nd-Bruce Rendall, Chatham (OPJHL)
44th-Nelson Emerson, Stratford (OPJHL)
1986
30th-Neil Wilkinson, Selirk (MJHL)
49th-Don Gibson, Winkler (MJHL)
58th-Brad Turner, Calgary (AJHL)
1987
63rd-Geoff Smith, St Albert (AJHL)
1988
31st-Russ Romaniuk, St Boniface (MJHL)
41st-Wade Bartley, Dauphin (MJHL)
44th-Dane Jackson, Vernon (BCJHL)
1989
9th-Jason Marshall, Vernon (BCJHL)
24th-Kent Manderville, Notre Dame (SJHL)
For some reason I can't find 1990 on, but if you want me to I'll finish it up later or tomorrow.
RQ: I don't remember Doug Berry, although I do remember his brother Ken Berry (also an Oiler) extremely well.
Shawn Horcoff BCJHL
ReplyDelete1995-1996 Chilliwack Chiefs
58gp, 49-96-145, 44pims
Playoffs
9gp, 5-19-24, 12pims
Horcoff led his league in scoring.
The level of play in the BCHL is really not that bad. It was given a bit of a bad wrap by some people before I got out here.
ReplyDeleteI'd say from about a 20 game sample it's a better league than similar hockey in Southwestern Ontario.
Clearly it's not Major Junior with the biggest issue being the speed of the game... skaters and decision makers.
What makes Turris impressive is how far ahead of everyone else he is at a much younger age than many of them. The other thing mentioned is the World Jr A Challenge which is a step bellow the World Jrs and he dominated the tournament.
It is still a tough call, though. I'd feel more comfortable with a kid out of Major Junior because it's easier to guess.
Turris may indeed be good - but at this time there is pretty much zero proof that he actually is. This is in contrast to a player like Voracek who has dominated at a young age against older opposition in a quality league (QMJHL).
ReplyDeleteA lot of the Turris boosting is pure speculation and hope at this point - doesn't mean he won't turn out - but there is really not much to base that opinion on except "gut feelings" that are terribly prone to being wrong.
Voracek and ironically Alzner (for all the slagging he's taken) are the best bets in this draft. Doesn't mean that they will turn out to be the best players at the end of the day - but at this time these are the two guys who have shown the most "real" potential to be players.
Turris' numbers are impressive and it isn't like he's playing in a beer league. The guy who beat him in the regular season scoring race is 21 years old, and I can't find anyone closer than 15 goals away from his final total.
ReplyDeleteWe don't have a measurement amongst ourselves to grade out the BCJHL, but is that really a reason not to take a player? I agree Voracek is a better bet, but after that I don't know.
Turris ppg number at 17 (2.28) in the BCJHL is sufficiently superior to the next 17-year old on the scoring list (Riley Nash, 1.5) that we can safely say he's well clear of the group in that league. Add to that his impressive powerplay goal total (27) and PK goal total (6, both are league highs from what I can find) that it's pretty obvious he dominated his league.
Unless the league has gone completely sideways since Zajac, I don't know how you can discount those numbers enough to consider someone like Alzner the better bet. He might be a safer one, but good grief let's try to get a difference maker here.
Turris was in on 46.5% of his club's regular season goal totals, which compares nicely to Horcoff's total in 95-96 (145/330, 44%).
Can we presume the BCJHL is a better league now than a decade ago? I don't know we can, but based on Turris' performance in that league at his age I don't know how we could reasonably expect offense inferior to Zajac. In fact, imo you could reasonably project a superior offensive player to Zajac (who scored .525ppg in the NHL as a 21-year old rookie).
Especially considering his ppg total at 17 (1.89) in the same league is well behind Turris (2.28).
Glenn Anderson and James Patrick went the Tier II junior to college to NHL stardom route also.
ReplyDeleteMark Messier went Tier II to the WHA as a 17-year old to the NHL.
Dave Tippett, though he was never drafted.
Lowetide said...
ReplyDeleteEspecially considering his ppg total at 17 (1.89) in the same league is well behind Turris (2.28).
Zajac was 18 when he posted that number not 17 like Turris. Zajac is 9 months older and would have been 19 yrs old on draft day.
Zajac put up 0.88 PPG in his 17 yr old BCHL season.
RQ: Good point, my bad. It makes the point, though, that clearly Turris is a better offensive player at 17. I know they aren't similar players but there are limited comps for him.
ReplyDeleteI still think he's akin to taking a high school ball player - equal measures of hope and risk. I would be more optimistic about him if he played lights out at the U18 - but he didn't. Turris was good but frankly the 08 class was better at this tourney. I know this is a small sample of games - but it doesn't improve my comfort level about him.
ReplyDeleteDid Cogliano put up similar numbers in a similar league?
Asia: Cogliano's numbers in the OPJHL (49gp, 36-66-102, 2.08) compared to Turris at 2.28, I don't know about the difference in quality league to league.
ReplyDeleteAsia: Let me put it this way: Let's say it's possible to deal Stoll, Nilsson and the 6th overall to Chicago for the 1st overall and Keith/Seabrook. (ie. Nilsson and the 6th for the 1st and Stoll for the dman)
ReplyDeleteIf they're drafting Voracek I'd do it and focus on adding a centre via UFA or trade. If it was Turris, I'd probably not bother.
Riv - yeah I do that deal for Voracek without question - he'll be a good one and it's one of the best ideas I've heard on the boards.
ReplyDeleteWe can clearly survive the lose of Stoll at center with Horcoff, MAP, Reasoner plus Cogs, Omarra and one of Nillsen or Shremp in the pipeline. I like MAP as a protected but still decent 2nd line C next season playing between to shooters like say Torres and Pisani. I would then go out and find a veteran UFA 3rd line C to play between say Moreau and a UFA like Johnson or Dvo on RW.
I like the idea of getting Keith - this would be way way cheaper than Redden and would free up a ton of cash to get a top line LW like Kariya plus bolster the 3rd line at center and RW with outscoring vets. Losing the Stoll and Lupul salaries (please god make it so) would also free up a ton of budget room.
Kariya Horcoff Hemsky
Torres MAP Pisani
Moreau UFA Johnson
Thoresen/JFJ Reasoner/Brodziak/Stortini (mix and match)
Keith Smith
Hejda Staios
Smid Greene Gilbert Grebs (keep 3 and trade one)
Out: Stoll, Lupul, 1 young dman, Nillsen or Schremp, #6 pick
In: #1 pick (Voracek), Keith, UFA LW (Kariya or Hartnell), 3rd line C and 3rd line RW
I have no idea about the difference of the leagues but would this be a good comparison between Turris and Heatley both at the same age:
ReplyDeleteDany Heatley:
98-99 Calgary AJHL 60gp 70g 57a 127 points
Kyle Turris:
06-07 Burnaby BCHL 53gp 66g 55a 121 points
Asia:
ReplyDeleteOne problem.
The ONLY UFA who meets that criteria?
Micheal Peca.
Good luck getting him to come back here.
I'd be on board for that plan otherwise, but Peca is literally the ONLY option available in that role unless we make a trade. 10-78-19-Brodziak is NOT good enough down the middle.
My issue with Turris is that people are only looking at the microscopic number of big success stories coming out of the BCHL and ignoring the dozens of other guys who put up numbers and are now running donair franchises.
ReplyDeleteStill think he's way more Horcoff than Yzerman and not worth blowing a top 5 pick on....
PDO - trade for a 3rd line C is fine - we have tons of assets to use or let rot on the vine and I'd rather get someone who can help us now
ReplyDeleteI think you have to respect the visual assessment of scouts at some level, especially when the numbers back it up.
ReplyDeleteI wonder how many 17-year olds have played tier 2 in Canadian hockey, scored at a 2.28 ppg rate, been rated #1 NA by Central Scouting, and failed?
I don't recall to many of those players existing, which makes Turris a prospect of interest on that alone. 40 years of Entry Drafts and how many players outside junior hockey, college or Europe HAVE been rated #1 CSB?
LT - these are the same CSS clowns who have Ellerby and Gagner above Voracek - you're giving them too much credit.
ReplyDeleteAsia: Yeah, probably. But I think you're nicking him a bit too much based on the league he's playing in.
ReplyDeleteI just don't have Desjardins-style proof. We'll see next season when he's in NCAA, in order to cover the bet he'd need to be quite a bit better than Cogliano was his first college season.
PDO - One problem.
ReplyDeleteThe ONLY UFA who meets that criteria?
Micheal Peca.
Good luck getting him to come back here.
I'd be on board for that plan otherwise, but Peca is literally the ONLY option available in that role unless we make a trade. 10-78-19-Brodziak is NOT good enough down the middle.
He is way too slow of foot for my liking but would Handzus not fit the bill or did I miss the point somewhere?
I'd love Zeus - but word is he's looking for $4,000,000 and I don't love him at a dime over $2,500,000, especially after a major knee injury.
ReplyDeleteCall me crazy but I seem to remember hearing that Bonk had a pretty good year against tough matchups this last sason in MON....
ReplyDeleteMoreau Bonk Johnson for a 3rd line?
LT - if Turis goes top 3 then he sure hell better be better than Cogliano - A LOT better - but I question whether he really is from my limited U18 viewing.
ReplyDeleteAsia: Well, that's fair. Let's draw a line in the sand and see if he can hit it.
ReplyDeleteZ Parise: 39gp, 26-35-61 1.56ppg
Heatley: 38gp, 28-28-56 1.47ppg
Cogliano: 39gp, 12-16-28 .718ppg
Would 1/1 suffice? Or does he need to be Parise? I realize a lot of it has to do with opportunity/PP/icetime, but we should be able to create a line in the sand.
Cogs was fine given where he was picked and the kind of ice time he was given by Berensen. Part of it was being a freshman - part of it was simply that he was not as good as the older guys in front of him.
ReplyDeleteBut if you've got a guy going top 3 - then he MUST be able to gain ice time from his coach through the sheer force of his skills. Heatley is the mark you would expect him to hit or come damn close. If he's not good enough to show that he deserves quality ice time right away - then you do have to consider that there may be talent issue there in addition to an opportunity issue.
1.5 PPG it is for me.
Asia, remember a lot of the guys int he BCHL who put up numbers like that are NOT 17 year olds.
ReplyDelete