This is Lorne Davis, about 1956. Davis is an Oilers scout, and former NHL player. Davis had an interesting playing career, beginning in his hometown Regina playing for the Commandos in Midget, Scott Collegiate in High School, the Pats in junior (he played, and played well, in the 1950 Memorial Cup as the Pats lost to another Habs' junior team, the Junior Canadiens) and finally 95 games for 4 of the original 6 NHL teams.He made the second All-Star team in the AHL one year, and in his mid-30s was reinstated as an amateur and played for the Regina Caps in Saskatchewan Senior Hockey and wound up his playing career representing Canada in the World Hockey Championships in 1966 (among his teammates were Olympians Fran Huck, Marshall Johnston, Seth Martin, Morris Mott, Ken Broderick).
He must have been a good player, because he was once traded straight up for Metro Prystai (who was an established NHL player at the time of the trade).
Davis is among several former NHL players who are employed by the Edmonton Oilers in the scouting dept. Their website doesn't indicate who the pro scouts and who the amateur scouts are under the direction of Kevins Lowe and Prendergast, so I'll just list them:
Michel Abbamont, Bob Brown, Bill Dandy, Brad Davis, Lorne Davis, Morey Gare, Kent Hawley, Stu MacGregor, Chris McCarthy, Frank Musil, Kent Nilsson, Dave Semenko, John Stevenson.
I do know that Brad and Lorne Davis, Chris McCarthy, Frank Musil and Kent Nilsson are certainly amateur scouts, as they are often quoted in Guy Flaming's fine articles for Hockey's Future.
Since Kevin Prendergast arrived as the de facto head honcho for the Oilers (the closest I can get to the change of regime is between the first and second round of the 2000 draft, between Mikhnov and Brad Winchester), Edmonton changed their draft philosophy and then changed it again. There is NO doubt this is true.
From 2001 through 2003, the Oilers chose skill early (with size if they could get it, with Pouliot vs. Parise being the obvious example but Niinimaki was a big kid) and then went for Coke machines in the second and third rounds. By 2003 they also had established a trend of picking players who had passed through at least one draft (Brodziak, Roy, Syvret) but were considered closer to NHL ready than younger options.
In his first three seasons (2001-2003), Prendergast drafted only one truly small player (Dwight Helminen, and they traded him). 94% of their picks were over 6 feet, 60% were over 6-2, 20% of them weighed over 210 the day they were drafted. The biggest kids were Zach Stortini, David Rohlfs and the gigantic Jean-Francois Jacques, whose slow transition to the NHL may be explained in part to the "big men take awhile longer" credo long held for pro hockey.
Since 2004, the Oilers have shown more of a willingness to overlook size (Cogliano) and speed (Schremp) at the top of the draft in order to bring more skill into the organization. In fact, both Schremp and Cogliano are under 6 feet tall, the first players taken by Edmonton in the first round under 6 feet since Tyler Wright in 1991. You can argue they made that decision a year too late (Parise vs. Pouliot), but I don't buy the argument.
At the top of the draft, the Oilers have surprised us only once under the Prendergast regime. Jesse Niinimaki was rated the 50th best European in the 2002 Entry Draft, and they look him 15th that year. THAT my friends is a reach pick. However, Ales Hemsky, Marc Pouliot, Rob Schremp, Devan Dubnyk and Andrew Cogliano were all either obvious options or rated "in the area" of where the Oilers selected them in their respective drafts.
In 2003, I wrote three things about Prendergast drafts that were absolute truths at that time:
- The Oilers picked their skill guys in the first three rounds (Hemsky, Niinimaki, Pouliot).
- They added power/speed (McDonald, Greene, Jacques) men earlier than they were rated by scouts in order to get Coke Machine's.
- They still liked speed, but LOVED big men with another identifiable skill (Stortini is a prime example of this).
Since 2004, I think we can say they still like a 2nd round Coke Machine (Paukovich, VandeVelde) but are less obsessed and in fact will draft outside their "ideal" player (Trukhno doesn't talk, walk, or cluck like an Oiler pick, speeds was the first to point it out and it's true) in order to add skill to the organization. Plus, as mentioned above, they draft skill over size in the first round. The Oilers have in the past, and continue to, draft for "need" instead of BPA at the top of the draft (we can discuss this, but I don't see much evidence against it).
We can also add that (as mentioned above) the Oilers have become quite good at selecting players who passed through at least one previous draft and are quickly usable (Brodziak, Roy, Syvret, among others).
From 2001 through 2003, the Oilers drafted 38 players. From 2004 through 2006, they drafted 23. We can mull over why the Oilers traded picks (some of this is due to the reduction of rounds) and certainly the deals that sent away picks for the 2006 run were worthwhile, but this draft should see the Oilers keep most of their selections.
Finally, a word about college. With the new rules making European players basically the same as Canadian Juniors (you have to sign them or lose them in the same window), the NCAA-bound option is going to be the most attractive route for teams like Edmonton (who want to have the choice of seeing a player develop before spending the cash).
In the Prendergast era, there are countless examples of college or college bound players who they've selected. In every season since 2000, the Oilers have used at least one of their top four picks on a player who fits that description (Brad Winchester, Eddie Caron, Matt Greene, Colin McDonald, Geoff Paukovich, Taylor Chorney, Jeff Petry).
So looking at this year's draft, we can probably name off the players in the top 60 who fit that bill and know that at least one of them will be an Oiler. Among those players in this year's draft are Kyle Turris, James Van Riemsdyk, Nick Petrecki, Jim O'Brien, Kevin Shattenkirk, Joe Lavin, Bill Sweatt and Mike Hoeffel.
If history holds, one of them will be an Oiler draft day.
I think the college thing made more sense for the Oilers in the past.
ReplyDeleteOverall, I guess it still makes sense for the whole draft because 80-90% of the players chosen won't be NHL ready until they're 21-22 at the earliest. However, it's a different story for the elite players. The bottom line is that the new CBA changes things a little - you only have exclusive rights to these players until they're 27. This is your window to retain elite talent at below market prices.
I'd defend waiting on these guys for two years until I'm blue in the face as well. Even Sidney Crosby will be better in the 20-27 range than he will be in the 18-25 range.
So my point is that the college route is just fine as long as they're not really going to college. If they're just going for two years until they're 20 yrs old, then that's great. The Oilers then sign them to a three year entry level deal and have them at a super low rate until they're 23 yrs old. If they stay longer than that, then they're wasting years of service IMO. And that's worse asset management than playing them in the NHL at 18-19 yrs old because those are peak value years.
So what's the scoop on Turris and van Riemsdyk? Are they going to leave when necessary?
Aside: Speaking of van Riemsdyk, I think we can safely add Drew Stafford to the growing list of NCAA power forwards proving Lord Bob wrong. I have no problem picking van Riemsdyk if he's there.
Totally aside: I guess if you stick with my logic and you think Cogliano can be a special player then this is probably the year for him to come out. He doesn't have to make the team at camp, but the clock is starting so he should play in the AHL this year.
I'd like to see Cogliano and Chorney come out, bring everybody. Oilers are going to make a 3-for-1 trade this summer and if it's Nilsson, Greene and a pick then that means they have some more (rookie) depth on the farm.
ReplyDeletePlus Chorney is a puck mover, might as well get him used to the pace of pro hockey now (he turned 20 yesterday).
Drafting is honestly one of the things that makes it painful to be an Oiler fan. Decisions are frequently influenced by money (drafting college players) or "hunches" (Niinimaki). Just once I'd like to see us make some decent picks and yet I've been having waking nightmares about a compilation video I saw on youtube about NY Jets draft blunders.
ReplyDeleteIn the past decade or so the Oilers have shown a decent ability to find gems in the 2nd or 3rd round, but consistently struggle to pick out skilled players in the first. Since 1995 we have one NHL'er (Hemsky) and a prospect who looks like he will make the jump (Pouliot). Obviously it's too early to tell and there does appear to be some improvement as of late, but that's still atrocious. Perusing the history of a few over teams seems to indicate that's well below average.
Rivs: I totally agree about how the new CBA makes getting these players under contract at 20 extremely important. It seems that both Cogliano and Chorney are both electing to stay in college which definately a disappointment because the clock is now ticking on them and I think they'd both be better suited to go to the A and adapt to the more physical game outside of college.
On Turris and JVR, in one interview he said himself that he plans to stay the full 4 in college and get his degree. JVR has apparently not commented on that so he's probably a better prospect to leave after 2. For Turris though, I've mentioned it before that his plans are a bit worrisome.
Since 1995 we have one NHL'er (Hemsky) and a prospect who looks like he will make the jump (Pouliot).
ReplyDeleteOr to look at it another way, after the first three drafts when everything Sather touched turned to gold, how many worthwhile NHLers did the Oilers get in the first round for the rest of the 20th century? I'm counting two: Arnott and Smyth. Of course, the rest of those drafts weren't really much better -- a Tikkanen here, a Pisani there, but generally nothing to get excited over. Not that any of us need to be reminded of all of this. ;)
I think I mentioned before that I met Lorne Davis and Bob Brown last summer at the Team Canada Red and White games at Father David Bauer (easy to get to for me: it's right across the street from U of C). Besides spending an entire intermission just talking hockey with Lorne, I learned a couple of things:
1) The Oilers gave all their scouts rings during the glory years.
2) Lorne was up with the Habs when they won the Cup in '53. I spent the rest of the week in awe that I just spent all this time shooting the shit with a man who played hockey with Rocket Richard.
If you ever want to meet and talk to amateur scouts, as well as the odd GM (Sutter, Sather, and Risebrough were all there for one or both days -- Sutter mostly because one of the second-generation brood was in the U18s), you could do a lot worse than drive down here to Calgary in mid-August.
Doogie said...
ReplyDeleteOr to look at it another way, after the first three drafts when everything Sather touched turned to gold, how many worthwhile NHLers did the Oilers get in the first round for the rest of the 20th century?
Rucinsky is another one. It's hard not to count Devereaux also. I guess Beukeboom as well if you want to go way back.
The Oilers were incredibly bad at the draft in the first round for a very long time. One could argue they weren't very good at drafting players period, but they did manage to turn some middle round picks into players.
Rucinsky is another one. It's hard not to count Devereaux also. I guess Beukeboom as well if you want to go way back.
ReplyDeleteHow did I miss Rucinsky? Must be because he was the second pick of the round. Devereaux? I honestly didn't realize was still playing until he signed with Toronto, which is never a good thing for a first-rounder. Beuk also was what he was, so yeah. So amend that to '84-'00 and add Rucinsky to the list. Still awful.