The Edmonton Oilers 06-07 didn't have enough NHL players at the forward positions. An incredible but true statement.Going into the 06-07 season, Craig MacTavish could look down the bench and see 10 players with over 150 NHL games: Shawn Horcoff, Marty Reasoner, Jarret Stoll, Ethan Moreau, Ryan Smyth, Raffi Torres, Ales Hemsky, Joffrey Lupul, Fernando Pisani, Petr Sykora. These are some good hockey players, some more skilled than others, some better suited to the powerplay than the penalty kill.
Four rookies on the club. Brad Winchester, Jean-Francois Jacques, Alexei Mikhnov and Patrick Thoresen. Coach MacTavish showed little confidence in Jacques and Mikhnov who were HS often early on, but Thoresen was a beauty rookie and Winchester had size and had shown flashes.
Not a great bench, but there's still 10 NHL players on the roster so everything looks fine unless something goes wrong.
And something always goes wrong.
Early in the year, Ethan Moreau has a freak injury and is gone for the year. As well, Joffrey Lupul does a Bob Sebra (6-15 on a team that went 91-71 is marching out of step with the rest of the Guardsmen) and is not only no help but actually costs his team a tremendous amount.
How? The great baseball writer Bill James often talked about "replacement level" players. These are players who are exactly average in terms of production in a given league in a given year. Kevin McRaynolds was often close to the median, as was Sid Bream a time or two. If we gave Lupul's at-bats (and toughness of opposition) to a "replacement level" NHL right-winger it would probably be enough to make men weep.
Added to that is Marty Reasoner. A favorite of mine, he did not have his best year. Throw in injuries real and imagined for Hemsky, Sykora, Smyth and others and what we have here is a massive gap.
The three useless rookies (I understand salary cap) put the roster in a big hole, and the injuries made it a flood. Forced into using Toby Petersen, Petr Nedved, Jean-Francois Jacques (still pitching a no-hitter after 37 gp) made the forward group a laughable lot all year long.
Further, the things MacTavish teams need to do, like get the puck out, backcheck, win faceoffs, were replaced by some cherry picking and some of the most feeble attempts of getting the puck over the blueline in NHL history.
In his mutterings the other day, Craig MacTavish said he felt that Joffrey Lupul's season may have been better had the coach benched him earlier. While that's a good point, it's also true that when the coach has this many injuries one can hardly blame him for going with experience as much as possible.
The most damning thing I can think of in terms of the forwards is to list their total minutes with their total points. Barf bag at the ready?
- Joffrey Lupul 1.33 points-per-60 (1263 total minutes)
- Fernando Pisani 1.29 points-per-60 (1301 total minutes)
- Patrick Thoresen 1.24 points-per-60 (875 minutes)*
- Marty Reasoner, 1.20 points-per-60 (999 total minutes)
- Brad Winchester, 1.13 points-per-60 (476 total minutes)*
- Marc Pouliot, 1.1 points-per-60 (600 total minutes)*
- Toby Petersen, 1.03 points-per-60 (875 minutes)
- Petr Nedved, .50 points-per-60 (591 minutes)
- Zach Stortini, .29 points-per-60 (207 minutes)*
- Jean Francois Jacques, .00 points-per-60 (292 minutes)*
There are others, but this is enough I'd say. Lupul's numbers are even worse if you take out the PP minutes. How many NHL players are on that list? The total minutes played represents almost 7,500 minutes of NHL action (82 gp x 60 minutes= 4920) which means the Oilers had the equivalent of an 1.52/3 anvils on the ice playing forward at all times this season. Just a note: although Pisani is on the list he doesn't belong on a list of anvils because of the other things he brings to the game. Still, for the money invested he needed to be better than 1.5/1.
*denotes rookie.
EDIT: Wanted to add the regular forwards not on the list above:
- Ales Hemsky, 2.92 points-per-60 (1087 minutes)
- Ryan Smyth, 2.77 points-per-60 (1472 minutes)**
- Jarret Stoll, 2.52 points-per-60 (928 minutes)
- Petr Sykora, 2.33 points-per-60 (1366 total minutes)
- Shawn Horcoff, 1.84 points-per-60 (1666 total minutes)
- Raffi Torres, 1.74 points-per-60 (1175 total minutes)
**That's Smyth's entire season, NYI numbers included.
The injuries sure didn't help the Oilers this season but Lowe bringing in guys like Lupul and Sykora probably didn't help with all the troubles we could see coming in the backend.
ReplyDeleteLast season was a good year for the forwards, relatively speaking, as we had all of Horcoff, Smyth, Dvorak, Pisani, Peca, and Moreau that we could slot in somewhere in the lineup and not get us killed. We lost Moreau, Peca, and Dvorak for this year and didn't really replace their void. Couple that with their replacements were young guys from the AHL and it certainly wasn't an ideal standpoint from management or the coaching staff.
We spread ourselves pretty thin and when the injuries started to mount, the depth didn't stand up.
At least we learned a couple of things for this year:
1) Lupul was as bad as advertised - maybe even worse. The warning signs of a poor ES+/- in ANA and a mediocre pp performance in his career carried forward to EDM.
2)Pouliot and Thoresen can both play at the NHL level and for rookies, they produced some promising GA/60 numbers relative to the team. Probably not the most difficult of competition for those 2 guys but still promising considering Stortini/Winchester/Jacques got killed by comparison. Small victories, right?
3) Stoll looked like he could turn the corner in terms of handling the difficult minutes and outscore a bunch. His DEC was gangbusters for the Oilers. Let's hope that the concussion hasn't set him back and he can consistently maintain that kind of level.
As an aside: I am so very glad that MacT and staff are going out to do some scouting free agency-wise. At least now I don't have to read conflicting reports between who Lowe/Prendergast think "can" be a roster player and who MacT decides "will" be a roster player. And no offense to the Oilers management, but they voice so much BS in the media that it's much easier to believe in MacT and his opinions.
Agreed on Pouliot & Thoreson, I think those two are good-to-go
ReplyDeleteFernando - started slow, but was potting them regularly come December. Everything crashed to a halt after the Sutton hit and the Smytty be gone. I don't think he would've hit 20, but was on pace for the high teens.
Armchair GM time - Hemsky needs a linemate edition.
Obtain Nash from the Blew Jackets for Stoll & Trukno.
"Of course he's over his concussion! Trust me."
It's interesting that MacTavish is out scouting. For all the talk about there being a "MacT Player" pedigree, seemingly Lowe never got the message or else we shouldn't being seeing all these effective players being traded away for ballerinas.
ReplyDeleteA player like Thoreson, for all his ability, is so low event that I'm ambivalent toward him. If you could load up all your bullets in the top two forward lines and then fill out the bottom six with kevlar vests like Thoreson and Peterson, you might be on to something. You could spend 21-26 million on 6 good players, and fill out the rest with league mins and the revolving door of cheap youth playing the 1-2-2. Or maybe that could only be effective with Luongo in net?
Tkachuk-center-Hemsky
Torres-Horcoff-Mike Johnson
Moreau-Stoll-Pisser
Any scrub-Poliout-Thoreson
My opinion on Horcoff mirrors the rest of the oilbloggers, with the exception that I don't think he creates enough as an individual, that his efforts to step it up offensively cost him defensively (atleast since his post-lockout promotion) and that he appears to have a ceiling to his icetime where he loses effectiveness. I'm not stepping inot the dreary and ridiculous "munber one center" debate, so for the sake of avoiding an argument I'll state that Hemsky's pivot would be 1a and Horc would be 1b.
I'm not absolutely sold on Stoll. His December, if I recall included a strak against some pretty weak teams, including the likes of Dallas wihtout Modano, Morrow or Lindros. That stretch w/o Hemsky or Smyth cam at a very opportune time in the ched. I can also rember the like of the Nasdins and Detroit's Fillipula line owning him.
A question I have is how much money is too much in regard to paying for players outside your top two tiers?
Slipper, that line up would struggle to score goals with Mike Johnson in the top6. Granted, if the center on the first line is a big time scorer that could help things along a little. Also, Tkachuk will re-sign in St Louis after the season. Just thought I'd let you know. :)
ReplyDeleteslipper: I don't think you'll find too much debate over terms like "#1 center". I think we all realize here how different that can apply to an individual center.
ReplyDeleteI personally don't see this whole mentality that MacT stifles offense and his type of player is only a grinder... Weren't the Oilers top 10 in terms of ES goals a couple years ago? Couldn't it just be that the roster is the cause of the lack in scoring and not necessarily the coaching style? But then... I suppose people will see whatever they want to see. IMO, it isn't so much MacT looking for a "MacT player". Rather, he's looking for a good one.
Regarding Stoll:
Just a cursory glance at 3 games in December:
Vancouver:
7/9 of his first period shifts were agains the IKEA line. (+1 ES
Carolina:
5/7 of his first period shifts were up against Staal. +2 ES
I've said it before that it's a small sample size and he posted a -1 at ES in his last 3 games in December so maybe he couldn't keep up the pace... but that was a heck of a streak. (+10/-1 in 7 games)
And Mr. Debakey: Do we even really want Nash here? I think Hitchcock might be the first coach he's had at the NHL level that is trying to make him a better player and he's had some growing pains in terms of offensive production. His salary isn't getting any lower and he isn't at a level that will justify that kind of present salary. We'd probably be better off spending the money elsewhere.
Well, thinking about the guy Mact described
ReplyDeleteI don't think Thoresen-like 5V5 GA numbers are what they're looking for.
And as you say, Nash certainly falls into that category
JIB:
ReplyDeleteMike Johnson has a history of low scoring, good scoring seasons. He's coming off a poor number season, so he'd be had cheap. By the BHN numbers he's an outscorer against good players and he has a pretty good GS rate, ecspecially versus the rest of his team. A tandem of him and Horcoff could play against absolutely anybody, and if Pisani and Stoll can hold their own, a line of Tkachuk and Hemsky would feast at even strength. Defensively this team need beeter wingers, and subtracting Lupul's gexpected goals against and adding a guy with MJ's track record is a affordable and feasible solution.
Ideally, this could give you three lines that you could virtually roll with. A coach's dream.
Momentai: I agree on all points. I think for the Oil to succeed Horc's going to have to play a major role, I just would prefer that the demand for production be alligned elsewhere. 2nd unit powerplay, second line sharing the tough mins with Hemsky's line, and both players wuld benefit as a result in my opinon. I'm a Neilson kind of guy, and he aimed to have a team that he could roll with, and a big thing wiht him (from what I've read) is to get yoor freshest players out agianst the opponent's most tired.
The only tihng I'm pointing out with the "MacT player" thing is the apparent disconnect between GM and coach here. Lowe's not acquring the type of players thatcan weather a storm, if you know what I mean.
Slipper Mike Johnson is on my want list as well. Should not cost a lot, can put up points, has speed and is good defensively. If MacT is indeed much more in the process than before I could see it happening.
ReplyDeleteI'd also like to see Mike Johnson here simply because he's a good defensive player who can also score you about twenty goals a year even if he is coming off a bad season. He'd fit right in with MacT's system, and man it would be alot easier to watch MacT throwing Johnson constantly over the boards than Toby Peterson.
ReplyDeleteAs long as we're dreaming, why not try to sell the farm to Carolina for Eric Staal? Young, established, gritty, playoff tested, and coming off a bad year so he may come cheaper. With a guy like Hemsky on his wing, he'd tear up the Western Conference they way big Joe does in SJ. For someone like Staal, i'd be prepared to give up any of Horcoff, Stoll, Lupul(if they're dumb enough), Schremp, any or all of the first rounders... what im trying to say is a Staal in the West would be worth his weight in Gold.
ReplyDeleteI'm on board with Johnson as well. Him and Bonk were carrying the load for the Habs at ES this year, no question about it. I'd also like to throw Devereaux's hat into the ring as well. I watched him play down the stretch with TO and he was a dog on the boards and is still as fast as he ever was. Which brings me to Reasoner who's clearly lost a step and is not a 4th line centre at best.
ReplyDeleteYea, it always feels bad to ditch a guy like Reasoner. He's been good for the organization, it simply seems like his career is tailing off. It would be nice if the organization could reward his loyalty in some way, make him an assistant coach in the AHL or something like that.
ReplyDeleteSlipper: I think Johnson would be a good pickup, I noted as much when I said we should target Sutton and him. My point was more that I think we would be aiming for a low-scoring, defensively tight team with those forward lines, and right now our defense isn't really suited for that. Overall I think we need to aim for more scoring from the wings, while also getting rid of Lupul. Unfortunately, a player like Tkachuk isn't really an option because St. Louis and him have a gentleman's agreement where he will be going back after the season.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a lot of concensus on moves - so clearly they will never happen :)
ReplyDeleteI like a Johnson or Dvorak fo the 3rd line - Pisani needs to play top 6 minutes with that salary. Also want Pouliot on the 2nd line to develop him.
Want a big scoring LW for Hemmer (Cole or Nash?)
Want a top pair dman (Redden, Timmonen?)
Resign Hejda or bring in a Sutton type
Pluck Toivanen fron BOS (and get rid of JDD in the process )
Trade Lupul to CHI to move up to the #1 pick(additional by subtraction) and take Voracek (addition by addition)
Torres Horcoff Pisani
Cole Pouliot Hemsky
Moreau Stoll Johnson
Nielsen/JFJ Reasoner Thoresen/Stortini
Redden Smith
Hejda Staios
Gilbert Grebs Greene
Roloson Toivanen
Lupul plus #6 to CHI for #1 (we pick Voracek)
Smid and Schremp to OTT for Redden (with extension)
JDD plus ANA pick to BOS for Toivanen
You can pretty much roll the top 3 lines and top 4 dmen - bottom d-pair and 4th line is for development.