The Edmonton Oilers have a fanbase suffering from both a broken heart (seriously, how many have really recovered from G7 SCF?) and the end of a long term relationship whose depth of devastation surprised probably even the divorcees.In the words of Gene Pitney, it's a town without pity (sorry, but when the hell else am I going to be able to slide that in?) and there's no telling what will happen.
Kevin Lowe has more goodwill built up in this city than pretty much any Oiler current or former. Some of us saw him slide into 7AM breakfast gatherings for the Christmas Bureau when he was an active player, some of us had a chance to meet and talk to him when he was an active player and were touched by his charm, wit and intelligence. Most of us were impressed by his ability, and he was certainly a charter member of the greatest Oilers teams of all time (can't imagine anyone taking that title away in my lifetime).
Kevin Lowe's impressive summer of '05 has been replaced by the summer of '06 when he was King Midas in reverse (obscure Hollies reference here). Lowe's comments thus far this summer have been more subdued than they have been in the past (possible exception that one spring where he took a couple of days to calm down before addressing the media, don't recall the year. 2003?) and RiversQ's suggestion of a "quiet, effective summer" certainly has merit.
I don't think that's Lowe's style. I think he'll do something very big at the draft, possibly involving the pick at #6. Seriously, if the Turris (ranked CSB NA #1 in the final report released today), Voracek, JVR and Cherepanov are gone, why not package the pick, plus a player and a prospect and acquire a quality sniper for Hemsky?
Or, what about signing Ryan Smyth? Ego and anger would certainly be a part of it, and with pretty much everyone knowing the offer (5yrs/27M?) and the counter (5yrs/27.5M? are those numbers right?) how they split the diff without one side or the other looking foolish looks impossible. However, if both sides are willing, maybe they sign Smyth to a "lifetime" contract and dress it up with an option year or some such (speeds will jump in here and tell me you can't do it lol).
So, the question: with the city, the 'blogosphere and for all we know small puppies heartbroken over the Ryan Smyth trade, would you be happy if he came back as a UFA this summer? Say, 4yrs/23.6M, or 6yrs/32.4M?
Or is it done?
Well, I thought it wasn't a terrible move and yet, honestly, I'd be happy if they signed him. What can I say? Head says one thing. Heart says another.
ReplyDeleteI think that ship has sailed though.
Sadly.
LT - thanks for your work on this site. I am an avid reader and your research, history etc are excellent. On the other hand you hurt me after the "bad thing" happened and you've thrown a couple of more jabs since (reference to painful photos)
ReplyDeletehere's the deal. whether or not the return for 99 or 11 was good enough there was always an "oiler" in the room. No slight on our core, but no one with the exception of maybee Stoll had grabbed that torch. And he did grab when 94 went down. That's a huge collapse to any dressing room regardless of talent. Mac T eluded to it in the last games.
and while many other ufa's are of a higher talent pedigree, the 94's of the hockey world win games. It is difficult to purchase your "team guy" on the ufa.
So I vote yes to sign him. But even if they do I still think KLowe should apologize. Since the "bad thing" happened even my goldfish turned black and is like floating around and like hasn't eaten a thing.
Dave: Thanks for the kind words. I don't mean to publish those photos but there are several from last spring that will remain with me forever. Some good (CFP after the PS, Winchester in DET with the octupus) and some bad (final photo of Pisani on the bench is a heartbreaker, and I have in my mind the sequence where the puck bounces off Commodore's melon and heads the other way with Jason Smith inexplicably going to the wrong net) but they're all so amazing that I post them. It's like the years 1991-05 mattered but not like '06. Stupid G1. Stupid G7.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I was honestly surprised by the amount of anger and upset from every quarter re:Smyth. Looking back, I think it's a combination of sentiment and a legit belief that Smyth was worth the money.
Plus, the generation that doesn't remember the great teams connected with Smyth in a way no single Oiler could have during the glory years. There were many nights when the only real reason to watch this team was 94.
Moreau's an Oiler in the Lowe/Smyth mold. He just couldn't show it this season. A couple of seasons ago, nobody was scoring, not even Smyth and Hemsky, and Moreau scored what, 5 in 10? Grabbed the team by its testicles and pulled it behind him. Stoll's another candidate too, if he ever plays again. (Lain, you keep putting him in your lineups. I see no reason to do so yet. I'd be pencilling him in as 13th forward right now, and leaving a great frigging big hole at C on lines 2 and PK2, and the left point on the #1PP if Simpson has as much sense as he does hair.
ReplyDeleteThe sad thing is, well another of the sad things, is how many are grass-is-greening Smyth.
ReplyDeleteSince Tampa went out, Richards @ $7.8 is better than Smyth for $2.4 less.
And so forth
Good point about Stoll. Pouliot can carry some of the load I think, but...
I don't think it's impossible he'd come back. The only problem is how do you justify that you've made the team better if the only thing you're doing next year compared to this year is paying Smyth more money.
ReplyDeleteIf our extra financial space almost all goes to Smyth how are we any better than we were in October 2006? That's the thing I can't come to grips with.
Stoll isn't Lindros here. He'll take all the time he needs to recover and he'll be fine.
ReplyDeleteIf we had made the playoffs he'd have done something stupid and came back early.
For now... we're good.
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ReplyDeleteI don't know where my cut-off point is but for those numbers you quoted, yes I'd certainly take 94 back.
ReplyDeleteThe thing that I always come back to is wondering if there's a better way to spend 5 mill or so then to give it to 94.
There's no question that the D at the start of '07 had better be better and deeper than it was at the start of '06 if this team has a chance to sniff at 9th place or better, but I wonder how much better it will be or can be given that Gilbert and Smid already have their jobs and I doubt either of them will be out of the top 7. I just don't think 94 was ever the problem and I don't think that at the money Lain quoted, he'll be a big problem in 3 or 4 years either.
Excellent Hollies reference. You made my day with that alone, sir.
ReplyDeleteLT: I think I've made my feelings on the matter well known throughout the Oilogosphere.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I'm thinking about putting together a shortlist of teams that Smytty might go to, and Edmonton is probably the biggest longshot of the bunch.
I signed on to the New York Islanders TV thing just so I could actually see Smyth's interview right after they went out of the Playoffs. I watched him, looking like Smytty, eyes downcast, talk about being on a team with some players that didn't leave it all on the ice. I listened to him talk about hunger and how nothing less than the cup is satisfying. I heard him say what a priviledge it is to play in the NHL and to wear an NHL jersey.
ReplyDeleteAnd the whole time all I could think was just come home. I want this guy on my hockey team. He is heart and soul and grit and goals and none of those can hurt us... and I think they can help us more than anyone realizes.
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ReplyDeleteI'm not a huge fan of Redden, so if we're going to spend that much money, I would imagine Smyth makes a larger difference.
ReplyDeleteReading between the lines ever since the trade, it doesn't appear Smyth was really happy on the island. That's not saying he's coming back here, but I expect him to go somewhere else.
I don't blame Smyth during the negotiations. Smyth originally wanted a 4-5 year contract in the summer of 2005. Lowe missed the boat back then, only gave him 2 years. Back then was when I initially started feeling uneasy...
Smyth then again tried to re-negotiate. Lowe didn't seem to show much interest (12M - 3 years) and mentioned the Oilers couldn't use some ''bad signings in the summer'' (UFA market) as comparables to Smyth.
I have no doubts Smyth wanted to finish his career in Edmonton - but after seeing all his peers (and while Moreau and Pisani are excellent players, if you're overpaying, over-pay your elite. It's not as big of a drop off in Moreau to Dvorak or Pisani to Dvorak as it is from say Smyth to Harnell) land big, lengthy contracts, he got frustrated, and went publically on 630 CHED after the Staios signing. Basically the message was, ''give me Fair market value - you gave everyone else contracts on candy strings''
..but will Smyth come back? I think he wants to, and I imagine Lowe will not find any better alternative. Who exactly is there? Gomez at 6M doesn't wet my pants. Hartnell is another overrated guy on HF. Briere has no reason to leave a perfect situation in Buffalo. The UFA crop this year just isn't that good.
Smyth will be going in the prime of his career. I have no problem giving him a 5 year, 27.5M with an NTC....but I don't think it will happen. With the "He's a good player, but he's not elite" comment by Lowe on HNIC and the arrogant Patrick Laforge's slam down of Smyth on CHED - it seems to me the bridges have been burned.
Sucks - but what you going to do...
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ReplyDeleteStoll isn't Lindros here. He'll take all the time he needs to recover and he'll be fine.
ReplyDeleteNo, but he could conceivably be Tim Connolly. This team is not as deep as the Sabres that they can carry on for an entire year down a centre.
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I think part of the reason for all the anger over Smyth (besides what you mentioned, which is all true) is because while we didn't expect the depths of the last 20 games of Hell, we kind of saw something like it coming. Management gave up, and you had to expect the players would, too, if only subconsciously.
So if Smytty comes back, is all forgiven? Not exactly. Not entirely. I mean, never mind the loss of the Yzerman/Sakic(/Beliveau et al) mystique by having him spend 25 games wearing the wrong blue and orange, it's more a point of how it all went down that will always leave a sour taste in my mouth. The Oilers will always be my team, and Smyth will probably remain my favourite player for the rest of the time he plays, but there will just be something intangible missing that I don't think can ever be reclaimed, leaving a sort of taint on the whole relationship. I mean, he might be back, but the damage is already done, you know?
Regarding any potential damage, or at least how it pertains to Smyth's imagine,I think everyone would have a very short memory if he returned returned, the winter of our discontent being shuffled off to the shed along with the shovels and the heavy boots.
ReplyDeleteI keep saying this but from reading Newsday, they always shove in a remark here or there about how Smyth never really left Edm and how his heart belongs there. There's no question that the Isles are gonna offer the moon for him to say, in fact the praise eminating from Snow, Nolan etc all goes way beyond effusive and treads the line between being complimentry and flat-out needy, but 94 said he'll let his family make the decision and wasn't his wife the queen bee of the Oilers better-halves? Smyth moved on and played his guts out and also played on one knee last going off but I think he's a creature of habit and a slave to his heart and though the Oilers made some bad moves in facilitating that atmosphere leading into the whole ordeal, I think Ryan would return if the money's at least close to what he's asking for. He's seen the other side but home still has some allure.
On the other side of the ledger, I'd like to believe that Lowe had some second thoughts about the way everything played out and maybe he'd like to smooth things over. Then again maybe this guy is just dumb enough to believe he can spend a potential Smyth stipend in a different manner. I wasn't a guy who was always Pro-Lowe but he made some moves over time that had me on-board and I even believed that he'd prop up the '07 team with some kind of trade. The 94 trade just tore it for me though, it wasn't as if I wasn't already sufficently raw from seeing what Lupul and Smid weren't bringing to the table or might never have the ability to bring, it was that after getting owned in dealing Pronger, Lowe once again let a big chip leave town without getting any kind of a sufficent return. Then once I read he was scouting all season for the Pronger return, well then that settled it. I'm just not that sure anymore that Lowe's the guy to lead this team and if he decides for the second time in 5 months, or the third time since last summer, that Smyth isn't worth 5.5 mill a season, well then my mind's made up.
Yes please.
ReplyDeleteLike Dennis said, I'm not confindent that Lowe will find a better way to spend 5.5 this offseason. He may well pull another Pronger (part one) deal out of his pocket, but the odds are stacked against him.
I don't know, something about this summer just screams that lowe is gonna make a big splash for the sake of making a big splash, irregardless of how much sense it makes. I can see a severe overpayment on the horizon.
That, and if we're gonna suck next year, i need someone to cheer for.
Anyone read Eklund's blog today? (I know - it's Eklund) But he finaly gave his "report on what happened" with the Smyth trade. And has Edmonton listed at 30% on "the chart" for a Smyth return.
ReplyDeleteI read it, with my teeth gritted and repressing anger I have felt anytime I read Eklund since Feb. 27th. I wonder if here's a grian or two of truth in there...
The Eklund item has more smoke and mirrors in it than Phil Niekro in the 9th inning.
ReplyDeleteInteresting points made here. Smyth doesn't quite fit the sniper role for Hemsky described as an off-season priority, but they certainly have some chemistry.
Lowetide said...
ReplyDeleteSmyth doesn't quite fit the sniper role for Hemsky described as an off-season priority, but they certainly have some chemistry.
The 2005/2006 edition of Smyth/Horcoff/Hemsky could be described as high event at best. That's about it. Mind you goaltending pollutes a lot of the ES numbers from last year. It's easy to be hard on that entire team's ES performance.
The 2006/2007 edition of Smyth/Horcoff/Hemsky was short and sweet but they kicked ass at even strength. They owned their matchups to my eye and were +10/-3 at 5V5 in just a handful of games and arguably one of the best lines in the league while together.
That period was also probably the best indication that Hemsky took a step forward at ES this past year.
Too bad we didn't get to see more than 10-12 games of that thanks to injuries, crappy forward depth and finally the trade. Heck, did it even last 10 games?
Anyway, my point is...
Fuck yeah, Smyth can play with Hemsky.
The Smyth issue in a nutshell: we underpaid for his best years - but do we now want to overpay for the hockey equivilent of his golden years? The best strategy is not clear-cut by any means and it's a decision is clouded by sentiment. Glad I don't have to make it.....
ReplyDeleteI thought the trade was pretty good, and I think it gets a lot better if Smyth re-signs here, if only for the optics (no need to kill K-Lowe, Casual Oilers Fan! Yeah, the trade is exactly the same, but you can renew those season tickets now!).
ReplyDeleteI really, really hope Smyth comes back for something sane. He's one of those guys who's kinda transcended the Oilers for me: I'd cheer for him in any jersey that wasn't a flaming C or a maple leaf, but it would be a lot easier if he resigned here.
Lord Bob said...
ReplyDeleteI really, really hope Smyth comes back for something sane.
This is the killer IMO. The Oilers had numerous opportunities to tie Smyth up long term at below market value. I bet they could have gotten him for less than $5MM/yr cap hit, had they signed him in the summer. This would have been before the Moreau and Staios contracts, before a very strong season, and before some dolt like Doan got paid $4.55MM/yr.
Now they put him through the indignity of being traded to NYI, and then trashed his value via Lowe and LaForge in the media following the deal. On top of all that, the details of the negotiations were leaked. Smyth would have to have less self-esteem than Hugh Hefner's girlfriends to accept anything less than $27.5MM over five years and that's nobody's fault except Kevin Lowe's.
I never liked the Smyth trade, but LT was right when he said Lowe painted himself into a corner last summer. He turned a pretty easy decision into a very difficult one with no justification whatsoever. Can someone give me a single good reason why Smyth's contract was left to the end?
What an incredible calender year for Lowe. It's hard to fuck up a team this badly unless you're trying.