Remember when Kevin Lowe told us to "expect the unexpected" after the CBA agreement? As he prepared for the 05-06 season Lowe implied there would be some big things happening and that was certainly true "at the end of the day."
Lowe has been very subdued this spring about what we can expect, although there has been some talk about the budget being increased. It sounds like he's interested in improving this team over a 2-year period based on his quotes.
Could Lowe improve this team enough this summer to compete for the division in 07-08? The easy answer is no, but let's do the math. Based on a $43M budget, with the understanding they need some help on the blueline and could also use a sniper to go along with Hemsky (in photo).
These numbers come from nhlnumbers.com and have been reported differently on other sites. If anyone has a definitive cap number for each player please pass it along:
Pos, Player (Cap Hit)
- RW Ales Hemsky (4.1M)
- C Shawn Horcoff (3.6M)
- RW Fernando Pisani (2.5M)
- RW Joffrey Lupul (2.312M)
- C Jarret Stoll (2.2M)
- LW Ethan Moreau (2M)
- C Marty Reasoner (950k)
- LW Patrick Thoresen (570k)
- C Marc Pouliot (942k)
Those are the 9 forwards under contract who will return unless dealt. Let's add in the obvious rfa signings and some candidates for the extra spots and their cap numbers:
- LW Raffi Torres (1.6M-EST)
- C Kyle Brodziak (600k-EST)
- LW Toby Petersen (500k-EST)
Okay that's 12. I've left off Nilsson and a few others (Stortini, Schremp, Jacques, Mikhnov, O'Marra) because they can't all make the team and some will be dealt this summer. You can throw on Jacques insteand of say Brodziak and the cap hit would be $68,000 so it's probably minor.
Those 12 forwards cost $21,874,000 toward the cap. Let's do the defense:
- Steve Staios (2.7M)
- Jason Smith (1.976M)
- Ladislav Smid (915k)
- Tom Gilbert (908k)
And then add in two free agents:
- Jan Hejda (1.5M-EST)
- Matt Greene (1.2M-EST)
I'll be honest, my estimates for these rfa's and ufa's is just throwing numbers out there, but it's a start anyway. Please jump in if they look wonky. So that's 6 defenders for $9,199,000. Goal:
- Dwayne Roloson (3.667M)
- Jussi Markkanen (1M-EST)
Two goalies come in at 4.667 million.
- 12 forwards: $21,874,000
- 6 defensemen: $9,199,000
- 2 goalies: $4,667,000
- TOTAL for 20/23 players: $35,740,000
With a budget of $43M, that leaves $7.26M for the sniper and the puck moving defender. Let's say Lowe deals Torres and Greene in a deal for Redden, then he can move Grebeshkov up and save a few hundred grand there, plus he'll need to acquire a sniper and a LW. In fact, that LW depth chart doesn't look promising without Torres, so maybe he deals Lupul.
What could Lupul and Greene and the NYI pick at 15 get you via trade? How much for Alexei Kovalev? Who wants Alexei Kovalev? What could 3.5M in free agent money get you on the open market? Robert Lang? How much will Bill Guerin cost? Scott Hannan? Paul Kariya?
Next up: UFA forwards.
An Unrestricted Ryan Smyth fits the Oilers needs for a top line player for Hemsky, and shores up the Left side. Hemsky saw his numbers spike last year playing alongside Smyth, and Smyth's goal totals have been increasing ever since the lockout, he's proven he knows how to put the puck in the net. Not only that, but getting a goal scoring threat that can also kill penalties...thats just bonus. He'll be costly, thats for sure, and probably kiboshes plans for a stud defenceman, but he's a fan favourite.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. Signing Smyth would be a major coup for the Oilers and would immediately put us in better shape for the 2007 season.
ReplyDeleteCan I give a big, emphatic NO to Alexei Kovalev? Imagine Lupul, only bigger and Russian. That's about what you've got with "Kovy," and even the English Montreal media has had enough of him. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Gainey bought him out (cap hit: $1.5M/yr over 4 yrs) at the same time as Samsonov ($1.175M/yr over 2 yrs, give or take some token amount due to differing salaries across the two years of the deal).
ReplyDelete3.5 million? Scratch Kariya from the list if that's all the Oilers have for a salary slot. He had a lousy playoff, but I don't see him taking a million dollar haircut for the pleasure of Shaun Horcoff's company.
ReplyDeleterobert cleave: Yeah, I don't think Kariya signs for any less than the 4.5M he made this year.
ReplyDeleteIf the Oilers can deal Lupul then that means they'd have 9.572M for the puck moving D and the sniper. If they go cheaper-than-Redden on the blueline then someone like Kariya (I don't know if he's an attractive option, just that he's an option) might be available to them price-wise.
Otherwise it's 3.5M and second tier forwards.
I'm pretty sure that this was why Lowe was going to ask for more money from the ownership. Our chances of getting something done look alot better if we can add another 3 or four million to get salary up to 46 or 47 million.
ReplyDeleteChallenge for the division? Absolutely not. Challenge for a playoff spot? Probably not.
ReplyDeleteBecause of Bettman's stupid divisional hard-on, everything has to be framed via the neighbourhood where you reside and the NW Div is uppercrust. Cgy has one more year with all the big guns, col has some nice young talent and they have the money to make a push for Ryan, if the Wild bring back Backstrom then who'll ever want to play them and the Canucks have Luongo.
I know the guy plays soft min and he's gonna cost a lot but I like Gomez for some reason.
I never did like Gomez myself, and he looks absolutely lost out there against T-Bay. Parise on the other hand is looking like a stud, and together with Zajac they're all over the ice...NJ's scouting is just absolutely ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteI think the Smyth ship has sailed. I can't see Smyth wanting to come back. The team has so many needs now and I don't think he can be signed for less than $5.75MM/yr for five years assuming he's going after market value. The Oilers had a chance to get him done last summer for much less than that (as LT has said) and they didn't negotiate seriously.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'd prefer that they target one year deals, expiring contracts and cheaper RFAs. I don't see much point in dealing away roster players or tying up lots of money this year when all the action happens next year. Surely half of those guys (Heatley, Spezza, Thornton, Marleau, etc, etc.) won't even make it to market, but their GMs will have to shuffle the deck to keep some of them and I think you want to have flexibility for the fire sales and the shopping spree.
I hope that if the Oilers spend the dough somehow, they use it on a forward and use Lowe's strength as a GM to rebuild a defense.
said...
ReplyDeleteI never did like Gomez myself, and he looks absolutely lost out there against T-Bay. Parise on the other hand is looking like a stud, and together with Zajac they're all over the ice...
Welcome to the world of matchups.
Parise generally abuses bottom six opposition (plus padding his totals with a couple of terrible goals) and all of a sudden he's a stud. Gomez gets stuck playing Richards' line and "he looks lost against TBay."
No sooner said and he gets 2 assists while his line does all the scoring.
ReplyDeleteAs for the matchups though, I was more concerned with the absolute lack of any desire that he seemed to be playing with.
My initial off-season plan:
ReplyDeletePeter Forsberg, on a big money one or two-year deal to bridge the gap till Schremp and/or Cogliano are ready. (If Lupul sucks playing with Forsberg, who will Joffrey be able to blame then?)
And Daryl Sydor and Jan Hejda on the blueline.
But actually, I would probably try trading Lupul or give him away, to free up money to sign Sykora or another forward.
But then again it depends on who else becomes available.
Since we have Cogliano and Schremp, and probably another high draft centre, I'd rather go short term with Forsberg rather than going after a Drury or Briere or seeing what Tampa does with Richards. (I don't think we are the right match for Tampa for a Richards trade).
Sykora (or equivalent), Forsberg, Hemsky
Moreau, Horcoff, Pouliot
Torres, Stoll, Pisani
Thoreson, Reasoner, Stortini
Jacques, Brodziak
Hejda, Smith
Smid, Staios
Sydor, Grebeshkov
Greene
Smith, Staios, and Sydor have enough left in them to get to Gilbert, Chorney, Young, Peckham, and Alzner in a couple of years.
As someone mentioned, I would wager that we spend closer to 45-46 million this upcoming season. Management is no doubt crunching the same numbers and realizing they won't be able to make the big publicity splash they want with a 43 million cap.
ReplyDeleteGomez is a guy we may realistically have a chance at acquiring, as I've heard that bring from Anchorage he was actually an Oiler fan growing up. Then again, we'd still have to match the UFA premium offered up by other clubs.
As for Parise, a goal on the scoreboard scored against someone's fourth line counts as much as one scored against their top players. He's put up excellent numbers this season as a young player and given his dedication and passion for the game, I would not be surprised to see him excelling in both zones in a few years time. We don't expect Pouliot to go out against other team's top players, so why should that be expected of Parise at this point in time?
On that note, frankly I would prefer if the Oilers built up a dedicated checking line of Horc-Pisani-Moreau and then used our weaker ES players (Lupul, Hemsky, etc) to victimize other team's bottom lines much like they do in NJ where Madden's line does all of the heavy lifting, shift after shift. Obviously to some degree MacT attempts this, especially with the likes of Lupul, but I would like to see a more dedicated attempt at it. Hell, we're paying those 3 players a mint for their defensive acumen, why not make the most of it?
On an unrelated note, Riemsdyk finished tied for first in points at the U18s with a 3 point game this morning and won best forward of the tournament. Shattenkirk showed those defensive weaknesses that have been attributed to him, as he was almost entirely responsible for two Russian goals today, including one where he didn't play a physical game against Cherepanov and lost his coverage more than once. Cherepanov made him look quite the fool as he put on a 30 second display of stickhandling before scoring a tie-breaking goal. Probably the best individual effort of the tournament, highlights are available online from HF. Furthermore, Filatov and Hedman are two more 2008 prospects who look to improve the stock of that draft class.
:)
Here we go
ReplyDeleteany discussion of the Oiler's D for next seaon has to include Grebeshkov, If he's signed a one-way he's in the Top-7.
The Back-up keeper won't be paid $1 million
Matt Greene at $1.2? That's not the best allocation of scarce resources.
Grebeshkov & Gilbert are the much much discussed puck moving Dmen?
Tradefors?
I've been pushing Boynton since Xmas. Available, Skilled & Physical. Let him work with Huddy, MacT, Smith & Staios and the sky is the limit [alternatively, “This Guy is the Limit!”]. Greene ++
RQ's short term guy – Hossa shoots left & Atlanta will be making changes. At $6 Million he'll force some cost cuttings elsewhere. Get Slater at the same time & the left side is taken care of.
For PR purposes - Nash from Columbus. I know everyone here snickered at him earlier this week – but the Hoi Polloi would love him and he and Hemsky might really work. Give them a whole line in trade - Nilsson, Schremp, Lupul
UFAs
Budget plan Dmen - Eriksson from Columbus or Pratt from Tampa – both better at $750,00 than Greene at $1 mm+.
Gold plated – Markov
Middlin' – Hejda & Tjarnqvist. Why not?
I think that's a decent plan Riv but Lowe's talking about making a big splash and even though a tonne of things would need to happen for this team to make the playoffs, I just can't see Lowe holding back and waiting until '09. Plus he's angling for his next contract and maybe his next job so that's another reason for him to potentially do something stupid.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I've seen it mentioned a couple of times in the US dailies about how Smyth's heart might remain in Edm and one of them comes from Greg Logan who's a really good writer and who's kept in close touch with smyth from the day he landed on the island. I believe he talked to him when ryan was flying in and he's had his ear ever since
if Lowe can sign Timmonen and Hartnell, he'll have an amazing summer. Otherwise, forget Redden and Forsberg.
ReplyDeleteThat's Interesting about Smyth
ReplyDeleteI've been working Nash's numbers in
They are, of coure, the same as Smyth's
5,400,000 Smyth .. 3,600,000 Horcoff .. 4,100,000 Hemsky
1,450,000 Torres .. 2,200,000 Stoll .. 2,500,000 Pisani
1,013,233 Nilsson .. 942,400 Pouliot .. 1,300,000 Dvorak
2,000,000 Moreau .. 600,000 Brodziak .. 570,000 Thoresen
500,000 Petersen .. 668,333 Jacques
1,750,000 Hejda .. 1,976,000 Smith
2,950,000 Boynton .. 2,700,000 Staios
900,000 Grebeshkov .. 915,100 Smid
907,500 Gilbert
3,666,667 Roloson
750,000 Danis
Total $43.4 Million
Stronger I'd say, than the team that was in first in the NW at Xmas
"Parise generally abuses bottom six opposition (plus padding his totals with a couple of terrible goals) and all of a sudden he's a stud"
ReplyDeleteCome on RiversQ, you can be a little stubborn sometimes.
Smyth has scored more than a few terrible goals, so what was the relevance of mentioning that Parise has put up a couple of terrible goals?
You don't throw young guys to the wolves (although it's even yet to be proven by you that Parise is playing buttersoft minutes in the playoffs), and as mentioned, we don't expect Pouliot to play the tough minutes, so why should Parise be held to a different standard? I didn't see Hemsky playing the tough minutes in his 2nd NHL season either, but we knew he was going to be legitimate talent...
The fact of the matter is, Parise is a young guy who is putting up solid numbers. He's performing his role, and he has all the tools to become a legit first line NHLer.
Let me just float this idea out there and in doing it I'll say that I don't think Lowe's the kind of GM that could pull off this trade BUT I'd sign Backstrom and bet on him as the next star goalie and then I'd either deal off Roli or look into buying him out. It seems like it would be hard to pull off the former, would TO take him and in turn buyout Raycroft I wonder?, and the latter shouldn't be too pricey but then again this is a team that doesn't like spending money either. It's just that I fell in love with Backstrom during the min/ana series, wild were severely outclassed and outchanced and I had Backstrom allowing just one poor goal, and I think he's the next one and he's still at an age that he'll be ready to spearhead the next run, if at all, the Oilers are ready to make.
ReplyDeleteThis move wouldn't be an indictment of Roli's play, moreover it's just a nod toward's Backstrom's potential and his being what, 8 or 9 years Roli's junior.
Jiggy's a potential UFA and there doesn't seem to be too many teams out there looking for goalies and it wouldn't make sense for a younger team to take a chance on Roil but for all the guys here, humor me for a second and try and find a fit for Roli so that we could roll the dice on Backstrom.
Any ideas?
I don't think Roloson played poorly at all. He was a solid (not excellent) goalie on a poor team.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I wouldn't mind Backstrom. JDD is pretty much a bust. DD may possibly turn out as a legit goalie in 2-3 years.
I don't think a buyout is neccessary. TO, TBAY, or LA may consider Roloson.
punjabioil: To be honest I don't give a fuck about Parise. Personally, I think you judge all draft picks based on how the pick you actually made plays. Comparing draft picks to other players you missed in a given draft is just pointless. Of course Parise's putting up some nice scoring totals and playing well for a young player. So what?
ReplyDeleteI was just pointing out that there was a very good reason why a superficial judgement on Parise v. Gomez is flawed. Their coach demands different things from them and well he should.
Backstrom might be a nice choice for a tandem with Roli next year. I picked him up mid-season in one of my pools so I was watching him quite closely all season. He's quite solid, but the one thing I noted is that he doesn't yet seem to have stamina up to par with most NHL starting goalies. In back to back games, or weeks where he played quite a few games in a short span, he really fell to pieces.
ReplyDeleteIf not as a tandem, TB is obviously still looking for a goalie so they might be interested in Roli if Jiggy and Backstrom are off the market already.
Say what you want about MP vs Parise, young Pouliot played the PK and didn't look terrible the few games I saw. So yeah, that is going up against the other team's best players. (Or their second-best anyway, since he seemed to be playing second-unit PK.)
ReplyDeleteThe only similarity between those players is they were drafted in the first round the same year. Parise is actually what Lupul should have been this year.
Parise's a fine player, no doubt, and he's covered his draft number so far - but Pouliot's not really a disappointment so far. And as riversq says, it doesn't really matter anyway.
I agree with mr debakey - 1.2mm for Greene seems a bit of an overpay. That's not a lot less dosh than Ethan Moreau gets, and Chopper's proven a fair bit more than Greene has.
Moreau makes 2.750 million next year by the way. It could be quite easily argued also that 1.2 million is a good rate for defensemen of Greene's calibre, warts and all even at this point. He's still young (especially so for a defensemen) and if he continues to play as he did down the stretch, or better yet improve, he's going to be a valuable defender of the Smith-type at a faster rate than Smith himself.
ReplyDeleteWhups, brainfart, I was thinking Moreau was 1.8MM for some reason - I think that was his own salary. In my own defence, I was forced to spend most of the day in Toronto and on the 401 yesterday, and we all know what being near TO can do to one's hockey branez (with apologies to mc79 and others).
ReplyDeleteI'm still not sure Greene is worth that kind of money. He's an RFA (without arb rights, correct?) coming off a not-so-hot season. If he's smart he'll sign a one or two year qualifying offer (which may actually get him close to the 1.2 mark anyway). Right now it's not clear if he's Jason Smith or Alexei Semenov.
Er, old salary. (In my own defence this time, I've just woken up and haven't yet had coffee. :) )
ReplyDelete