The SWB Penguins have just wrapped up their regular season so we can go ahead and finish off the equivalencies. The post below covers Europe and links the NCAA and CHL numbers.I think the AHL numbers are more reflective of what a player might deliver in the NHL than any of the other Desjardins' numbers. There are lots of reasons for this, among them the ATOI totals for each player is usually similar in the AHL to what a player will get once established in the NHL. So a player like Rob Schremp isn't playing 30 minutes a night as a apparently did sometimes in junior.
Age has an impact as well in the AHL, as Desjardins' (correctly) nicks a player who is older and rewards the 20 and 21 year olds.
With that said, here goes and comments at the end. Age in brackets and there are all in 82gp totals, and excluded those who didn't play more than 10 games.
- Robert Nilsson 82gp, 10-27-37 (21)
- Marc Pouliot 82gp, 16-20-36 (21)
- Jean Francois Jacques 82gp, 13-23-36 (21)
- Kyle Brodziak 82gp, 15-20-35 (22)
- Rob Schremp 82gp, 10-21-31 (20)
- Tom Gilbert 82gp, 3-18-21 (23)
- Mathieu Roy 82gp, 7-13-20 (23)
- Tyler Spurgeon 82gp, 6-12-18 (20)
- Alexei Mikhnov 82gp, 6-12-18 (24)
- Danny Syvret 82gp, 3-11-14 (21)
- Zack Stortini 82gp, 7-5-12 (20)
- Brock Radunske 82gp, 3-0-3 (23)
- Troy Bodie 82gp, 0-2-2 (21)
- Bryan Young 82gp, 0-1-1 (20)
- Mikhnov's numbers here imply the RSL totals may be the result of extended time-on-ice or PP time he wasn't getting in the AHL. At 24 he needed to have a bigger impact in the AHL than he did to be considered a strong candidate for next year. I'd be interested in MacT's comments on Mikhnov if he comes to camp in the fall.
- Pouliot didn't dominate in the AHL when he played there this season, but he's well clear of the others in the top 5 because of the other elements he brings to the game. Kyle Brodziak is another player in that cluster who is a "MacT type". I like his future with this club.
- Jacques can play based on these numbers. I'm not a big believer in the 4A idea (a guy who can dominate Triple A but can't hit big league pitching) but Jacques looks exactly like that right now. He needs a strong camp.
- I'd pay $250 to know Rob Schremp's time-on-ice numbers in the OHL last season and the AHL this season. Am I the only one? I can't understand why this info isn't available, even if it's by subscription. I'll give them all the money I used to spend on the Hockey News. GIVE THOSE NUMBERS TO ME you windbags!
- Tom Gilbert, Mathieu Roy and Danny Syvret look to be in a death battle for an NHL job, but I think Gilbert already has it won. Roy might be the better player, though. Danny Syvret has Jeff Huson upside.
- Tyler Spurgeon was a 'Kevin Lowe special', a pick the GM got to make just because he was the GM (that was my understanding based on a Jim Matheson article several years ago). Maybe the Oilers should let a fan like speeds or Blue Bullet make a pick instead.
Spurgeon has performed very well for a 21 year old (birthday less than a week ago) 9th rounder selected (nearly) 3 years ago.
ReplyDeleteIMHO - we need to liquidate some AHL assets this summer to pick up a useful veteran NHLer and to move up in the draf to pick the only sure-fire elite kid (Vorcek).
ReplyDelete- Schremp is prime trade-up material and a team like CHI could probably use him and insert him into their lineup immediately. Would he be enough to move up from #6 to #4 - that's unclear. But Schremp, Nilsen, Brodziak and Mikhnov are all at the point where we either play them or trade them. Lupul is another one dimensional young forward who I try to move this summer. Younger guys like Cogs, Trukhno should be kept to develop further and we re-evaluate next summer.
- something has to happen with the dmen as well since we simply cannot have Smid, Greene, Gilbert, Grebeshkov and Roy on the roster. Danny Syvret and Roy can be thrown into any deal - but Roy is a decent enough #7 who brings some toughness and a willingness to fight if necessary. But the fact remains that AT LEAST one of Smid, Greene, Gilbert and Grebs has to be moved - my preferance would be a Smid for Redden deal that allows us to move Gilbert, Greene and Grebs to the #5-7 slots with Redden, Smith, Staios and Hejda in the top 4. But a Gilbert and Lupul for good dman x deal works for me as well.
I heard Miknov was resigning in Russia - anyone know when we lose his rights?
I guess my point is Lowe could be criticized for any number of things, but selecting Spurgeon in the 9th round doesn't really stand out as something he should be criticized for.
ReplyDeleteBut if we want to criticize 2004 draft picks, Dubnyk, Tesliuk and Gordichuk look like better places to start. Dubnyk less so, obviously.
And, no Asiaoil, I'm not saying Dubnyk is a bust, but there were certainly guys taken after him (the guy directly after, for one)that sure look like better bets at this point than Dubnyk. And I'll be the first to mention that I had Schwarz way ahead of Dubnyk (looks like a big error on my part at this time).
speeds: Yeah, I guess Spurgeon has covered his draft number. I just don't like the idea of the GM wandering into the scouting department and imposing his will on draft day. Just doesn't sit right.
ReplyDeleteAs for the 2004 draft, it looks a bit out of sync doesn't it? I mean they take Hemsky in 2001 (with Lynch looking good until injured) and then Stoll and Greene in 2002. Pouliot and others in 2003 and then 2 first rounders in 2004 and they appear to be slow developing at the very least.
Dubnyk's ECHL numbers are interesting though, that .930SP in the playoffs afer a .921 regular season in which he was 3rd in the entire league bode well for the big man. Plus he's stayed healthy through his entire development period.
I agree on Dubnyk, he's been seemingly making progress, and we can't really judge his AHL progress since he hasn't been given a shot yet (other than to say Deslauriers got the AHL nod over Dubnyk, and I'm sure seniority won the day there).
ReplyDeleteThat said, it would be hard to argue with those who would prefer Radulov, Wolski, Zajac, or Meszaros, at this time anyways.
Speeds - you know the drill - forwards develop faster then dmen who develop faster than goalies. It's all a matter of getting enough experience to eliminate mistakes that get more expensive the closer you get to the net. You can also hide a forward pretty easily and dmen to a lesser extent (Meszaros is good but got exposed this season against tougher opposition) but there is nowhere to hide a goalie.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you that Radulov and Meszaros are worth more now - but if DD become the big dominant goalie I think he will become - he'll be the most valuable on that list. Dubnyk will be fine once his focus is strong enough to hold for 60 minutes and game after game. He still goes into those little mini-swoons during the season - but the good news is he always busts out of them strong and they are getting less frequent. He's also a very fiesty kid - takes quite a few penelties when guys crash his crease. I like goalies that take care of themselves to a certain extent.
We will see how he does next season in the AHL as a starter - but so far so good. We have to move JDD though IMHO - he's mediocre at best and DD could use a wily old vet to partner with. Rumor has it that JDD and DD detest each other and that would not be a good development scene.
.....oh yeah - you'd get my vote for speeds to make the 7th round choice any day :)
ReplyDeleteThis probably sounds overly harsh, and no offence to Matt Glasser, but hard to believe anyone could make a worse pick than him in the 7th round of 2005. But, hey, I hope he makes it, that would be quite the turnaround though.
ReplyDeleteIf we need to trade one of our young defenseman Greene seems like the obvious guy to move. He's least able to carry the puck, pass and doesn't seem to have any powerplay potential. Gilbert showed more in one stretch of games than Greene has shown in 5 times as long. Smid is simply clearly a better player in his mobility, passing and puckhandling than Greene with a much higher cieling. As for Grebeshkov, I'm not familair with him but he's already been promised a job.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"Rumour has it that JDD and DD detest each other and that would not be a good development scene."
ReplyDeleteWhere you getting that from Asia?
From the WBS team page: Kyle Broadziak as the team's MVP, Tom Gilbert as the team's most improved player, and Rob Schremp as a scratch for the Pens final game...congrats to Kyle and Tom. If Chicago's dumb enough, give them #6 pick and Schremp for the #1 pick. Would Voracek be elligable for the AHL next year like Toronto's 2006 first rounder Jiri Tlusty(sp), or would he have to honour his QMJHL deal?
ReplyDeleteCan't wait to see Dubnyk in the AHL next year. He's been the star of the series for Stockton's first round playoff matchup from what i've seen. I think JDD's played fine this year for WBS, but i think its time to put all our eggs in one basket and pick the younger guy with a better upside.
Schremp is injured. He's played quite well for the last few weeks and generally has been on the first line in WBS. If sending him off with our 6th to CHI got us the 1st though, sign me up.
ReplyDeleteI can see the top 5 guys all having some time in the NHL but that #3 spot by Jacques sure seems like a doozy. It's just so strange that he's done so little at the NHL level given his production in the AHL.
ReplyDeleteAnd speaking of the NHL 2004 draft and goalies:
SJ's draft pick doesn't look all that bad at #94 overall - Thomas Greiss.
This past year - 2.61 GAA and .912 SP for Worcester. SJ and MON just keep finding goaltenders don't they?
Or developing them momentai
ReplyDeleteI seem to recall mention that SJ employed one of the best goalie consultants around, who apparently died quite recently actually. I believe it was the night before the SJ/NASH opener in fact. I havn't looked into it in anymore detail than that though.
ReplyDeletepunjabioil - can't remember where I heard that DD and JDD were not the best of friends (Flaming maybe?) but to be frank but it didn't surprise me.....
ReplyDeleteAh who gives a shit if they get along...one of them is a career AHLer anyway.
ReplyDeleteYeah exactly - if we can get any value out of JDD right now we should take it - it's taken him 3 years to simply be a below average AHL starter. I'd be all over dumping him and a kid like Nielsen for Toivonen - then getting an old vet to work with Dubnyk.
ReplyDeleteJeff Huson? Wow. I just remember him being one of those guys that wore his hat inside of his batting helmet and when paired together he looked like the Great Gazoo...or Jack Daughtery or you really wanna scrap the barrel.
ReplyDeleteLain, how did he make it through quitting on baseball? I'd like to know that story.
Dennis: I don't know that story. Was it after the strike? Baseball died in 1994 but I understand they play the games still for exercise and such. :-)
ReplyDeleteMy memory of Jeff Huson is deep fall, late 80s, warm night at Shea. Expos in the race, a beauty team with more guts than talent.
Someone old (maybe Nettles) gets a walk and they send Huson out to pinch run.
Pitcher picks him off first. The Montreal Expos made more people cry than any team before or since.
Yeah I remember him getting picked off, I always thought it was against the Cubs though for some reason...seems like it was at Wrigley.
ReplyDeleteAnd I meant to say how did you manage to quit baseball. That must be a helluva story.
As for the Expos making people cry, I'll never care about the Oilers as much as I did the Expos, it's just not possible. I'm still pissed off that Greg Colbrunn got hurt and didn't wind up being a seriously good hitting catcher.
Dennis: I hear you. I think for me the Expos will always be #1 because they were the team of my youth and my Dad spent many hour talking baseball with me. It's the sport we shared the most.
ReplyDeleteI can still remember being upset when they traded Rusty Staub (even though it was a great trade). Worst Expos moments would need a 2.5 hour movie to get it done. There's an hour and 10 on Mike Schmidt!