This is Kevin Lowe during happier times. All his teeth, lots of hair, a young man with a helluva future. I suspect that SCF run last spring was easily the best time he's had in the business since retiring from playing the game, and it looks like it'll be some time before he can return to the peak of the game (at least with the Oilers).Before the season began, we worried about the lack of depth on the blueline and as it turned out that (along with a lack of MacT type players among the forward group) would cut a big hole in the heart of the season.
With the trade of Ryan Smyth, the Oilers under Lowe/MacT have stepped into an elevator shaft. Tough to endure for the Oiler fan, with only the possibility of a very high draft pick easing the pain.
However, the first round pick is extremely unlikely to help anytime soon. So for Kevin Lowe, the offseason meetings on how to improve this team should have already started. Perhaps he has a great big depth chart on his wall where he expresses how he feels about the team moving forward, or maybe it's a neatly folded piece of foolscap hidden under the calendar mat on his desk.
I hope he has a list entitled "How many Actual NHL players do the Oilers have under contract for 07-08?" If he does, I know for a fact he doesn't need the full sheet of foolscap. I'm talking about guys who can help, not prospects who've played 40 games and may turn out or young defensemen whose arrival at "actual NHL player" is a distant bell. I'm not even talking about guys under contract who may have slipped to the point where they can't help (Reasoner?). I'm talking about guys who can hold their own, contribute, make a difference.
- Ales Hemsky
- Shawn Horcoff
- Dwayne Roloson
- Jason Smith
- Steve Staios (injured)
- Fernando Pisani
- Jarret Stoll (injured)
- Raffi Torres
- Ethan Moreau
You CAN add players from the above categories to that list and be successful in the NHL, but you can't add very many. Here, let's add a few:
- Ladislav Smid
- Matt Greene
- Marty Reasoner
- Patrick Thoresen
- Marc Pouliot
Lowe will certainly add a free agent or two, chances are we could name three and be correct:
- Petr Sykora
- Jan Hejda
- Jussi Markkanen
The question then becomes "who gets the other 6 NHL jobs"? Are they players from the Denis Grebeshkov-Robert Nilsson-Zack Stortini tree, or are they players who will be acquired by sending three prospects away for one veteran? Are the veterans coming in useful, reasonably priced fellows who can work hard and make a difference, or is it one very expensive piece added to a roster with more holes than we've seen in Edmonton since 93-94. This has been an incredible ride for the Oilers since the strike ended. Pronger trade, SCF, Pronger trade, elevator shaft.
I wonder if Kevin Lowe has the piece of foolscap listing all of his NHL players the day he arrived in the GMs chair in summer 2000. I wonder how long that list is, and I also wonder how on earth he's going to get his list back to 2000 levels. Which, understanding where we've been in the last 12 months, is incredible.
EDIT TO ADD: Raffi.
13 comments:
Heh, read your comment - its your turn to step away from the brink now LT ...
Seriously though I think that the way I look at it is this (and I am blue skying so hold off jumping down my throat, all you grumps out there).
This team was in the mix in December. If Lowe had gotten a Dman or two then they likely would have been ok - of course injuries happen and we all remember that the real problems began when Staios and Shaggy went down.
Anyhow obviously Smyth has been shipped out and has to be replaced and Hejda has to be signed. On top of that a Dman to play top 4 has to be brought in.
If your D is Smith/Hejda/Staios/New Guy as your top four you're looking alright.
Then up front you have a list of five plus Sykora plus Torres (forgot him?) so that's seven. Then in reality you need two more guys to fill out your top nine. One is the Smyth replacement. One is, well, I think its Thoresen but if not him, lets say Dvorak.
Now is this team a world beater? Naw. Are they anything? Who knows?
(You forgot Lupul too by the way but his season does not qualify as NHL calibre so we can forgive that. :) )
Anyhow, I guess my point is that with a few moves this team has a decent lineup on paper - does it translate on the ice? I guess we'll see.
I left Lupul off because he had such a bad season it hurts to write his name. Torres' name being left off was an omission on my part.
If we look at top 9:
Horcoff-Sykora-Hemsky
Stoll-Torres-Pisani
Mike Johnson-Moreau-Dvorak
Then I think you can safely throw out Pouliot-Thoresen-Winchester as a 4line (or Nilsson, or whomever). I don't know how many goals they'll score but it isn't like Phil Esposito retired from the 06-07 Oilers.
But that's adding veterans, which is what I'm hoping Lowe does. What I fear him doing is getting one big name and then bringing back the kids. I haven't bothered to count the at-bats given out to kids this year but it's way too many.
I don't know of a team that went far in the playoffs with three rookie defenseman and at least that number up front.
If we go through the summer and they haven't added at least two veterans on D and two more on F then the Oilers are in the Colten Teubert sweepstakes.
That last set also assumes Stoll comes back. I'm starting to assume he won't be, although you never know. (But you never know.) Grossly unfair for his season to have ended this way.
And that looks fine as a top nine although I suspect that we'll see one or two kids in there.
I'm figuring four veteran D. I'd love Shaggy as the 5 but its not going to happen - too many kids.
And up front I think Pouliot gets his shot in the top 9 and that here is where Lowe tries to hit his home run also. Or maybe a stand up triple.
Bringing in guys like Mike Johnson or Dvorak would certainly be a good idea.
And maybe someone to figure out that PP.
I'd like to see a Mike Johnson pick up. He was always money when he played in Phoenix, and was good for 20 some odd goals a year. For whatever reason he isn't playing well in Montreal. Picking him up could be a great idea though, he's likely to turn it around and would give us another guy who can face some tough opposition.
I would change things a bit:
Sykora Horcoff Hemsky
Torres MAP Pisani (2 shooters with MAP)
Moreau Stoll UFA vet (big sandpaper guy)
Nilsen/Thoresen Reasoner Lupul
Smith Redden
Staios
Gilbert Greene Grebs Hejda (one guy to 2nd pair - one to PB)
I actually don't think we need many guys to be competitive - but they have to be the RIGHT guys. A top pair dman like Redden is key and I am trading Smid, plus ANA #1 pick plus any of Schremp, JFJ, Mikhnov, Winchester to do it. OTT has cap issues this year, need to resign Spezza and Heatley the year after, and Redden may jump anyway next summer as a UFA. The time to do this deal is now and resign Redden to an extension this summer. I give up Smid as he has the longest development path but is very talented and could be a Redden replacement for OTT in a few years.
We have also needed a big sandpaper shutdown RW for all season and Moreau's injury just made that even more obvious. Pisani must also play top 6 minutes at that salary. Getting this UFA RW vet give us a decent shutdown line with Stoll and Moreau and makes our bottom 6 tougher (which it needs with Lupul, Nielsen and Thoresen in the mix).
The top line sees a resigned Sykora with Horcoff and Hemsky - decent defence / decent offence. The 2nd line has MAP between a couple of shooters and again it should be decent at ES. The only line that really needs to be hidden is the 4th where we are developing a couple of top 6 guys (Nilsen and Lupul) with Reasoner and Thoresen babysitting. Reasoner and Thor can also play some 3rd llne if needed due to injury.
We need one home run this summer (Redden or equivilent) - one smart signing (UFA 3rd line vet) - and a few of our young guys rebounding with good seasons (Hemsky, Stoll, Torres, Lupul, Nilsen) to be OK next year. We also need to liquidate a few prospects to move up in the draft to get a couple of elite guys like Vorocek and Alzner. I REALLY want Vorocek as I see a young Hossa in this kid.
Contrary to most of these posts, i can't see Dvorak coming back. I seem to remember a falling out between Radek and the Edmonton brass during the offseason and Dvorak saying some pretty rough things about playing for the Oilers in general...am I just thinking this up, or was there really something there that i'm remembering? Granted a Dvorak-type of player for the third line would be a great addition to take up some of the tougher minutes, i can't see him coming back without throwing huge money his way.
dotiro: That was his agent who then stated he loved the Oilers. It's all a game.
Here's my plan that I threw out at RiversQ last Saturday:
Hartnell Horcoff Hemsky
Torres Stoll Pisani
Moreau Pouliot Calder
Jacques Reasoner Thoresen
EXT: Petersen, Nilsson
Smith Pitkanen
Staios Hejda
Smid Grebeshkov
EXT: Gilbert
Roloson
Toivonen
Trades:
Lupul, Greene, Winchester, Ducks 1st rounder for Pitkanen
Schremp for Toivonen
Calder signed for 3 years, 2 million per, with Hartnell given 15 million over 5 years. Pitkanen acquired and also given a five year pact.
More NHL players who can play, but a focus on young guys in Calder, Hartnell and Pitkanen. A lineup built to make the playoffs next year and seriously contend in the three years after that.
I like the Schremp for Toivanen trade - a lot - it could make some sense for both teams but I'd rather throw in JDD instead of the first. The Finn was rushed and it caught up to him this season - but he's a near term guy who will likely rebound.
asiaoil: I know that everyone hyped Noronen as possibly being "the next Kiprusoff"...but that didn't pan out.
I see a lot higher probability that Toivonen goes somewhere and makes their Bruins bang their heads against the wall.
He'd be an excellent pickup for the Oilers, and would help build a "longer" bridge to one of JDD/DD
sweatyo - well everyone knows I think that JDD is a "bridge to nowhere" but I agree that Toivanen could be a guy that is ready when Roloson is gone 2 years from now and DD won't quite be ready (if he pans out).
Lowetide said...
I don't know of a team that went far in the playoffs with three rookie defenseman and at least that number up front.
Clearly they were not as deep in rookies as we are this year and I am not sure it could be considered going far but the Sharks we played against in the 2nd round had more than a few rookies upfront and on the back end.
D- Matt Carle, Christian Ehrhoff, Josh Georges.
F- Patrick Rissmiller, Milan Michalek, Steve Bernier, Marcel Goc.
Of course we do not have a Thornton :)
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