Writing Off O'Sullivan

This is Darrell Evans. He was a unique ballplayer and despite exceptional value was underrated for most of his career. Evans great skill was combining power with an ability to draw a base-on-balls. He was a Rule 5 pickup by Atlanta (from Oakland) and led the league in walks twice during his time with the Braves.

His weakness was batting average, and in 1976 (while he was hitting .173 but still managed a .320OBP) Atlanta dealt him to the Giants. In San Fransisco he continued to hit for power and OBP and had some fine seasons there, and when he went to the Tigers Evans was part of a strong offensive team that won the 1984 WS and had a deep run in 1987 (clubbing the Jays down the stretch in a memorable collapse by a Toronto team).

When people talk about that 1984 team, names like Kirk Gibson, Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell and Jack Morris are (correctly) mentioned as key components. However, Darrell Evans was a veteran hitter with a terrific eye at the plate and contributed to a winning team in a major way.
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It looks like the Oilogosphere has made up its mind about Patrick O'Sullivan. He's been an Oiler for over half a season and hasn't delivered close to his established level of ability. It's my belief that if we took a long look at O'Sullivan's successful seasons (05-06 in the minors and 07-08 in the majors) and then compared them to this year we'd find out some things.

A quick glance at his career tells us that most of his NHL goals scored before arrival in Edmonton were at even strength (30 at EV, 7 on the PP and 4 on the PK) and that he played mid-level opposition with good linemates in the 2007-08 season. He played about 18 minutes a night that season (13:38 at EV, 2:25 on PP and 2:38 on PK).

So I think a case could be made that O'Sullivan is an NHL player. If the Oilers had the depth to be able to play him in a similar role (mid-level opponent, good linemates, lots of EV time) to the one he played in Los Angeles one could argue the Oilers would have more than three (Tyler made an excellent point last night about Penner, Horcoff and Gagner) players who could help them win hockey games.

Patrick O'Sullivan doesn't look like a difference maker and he's certainly not Darrell Evans. However, there is some evidence that he can play in the NHL and on this team that has tremendous value.

Predators at Oilers, G34, 09-10

This is Cindy Walker. She is one of many thousands of songwriters associated with country music and Nashville. If you're a fan of country music, you'd know her from songs like "You Don't Know Me", "Blue Canadian Rockies", "Distant Drums", "I Don't Care" and "In the Misty Moonlight."

She wrote "Dream Baby (How Long Must I Dream)" for Roy Orbison in a quick hurry because Orbison was finishing up recording an album and "all the songs sound the same." Orbison asked for an uptemo, unusual arrangement and to this day it remains one of the truly unique songs in pop history.

Walker isn't the most famous of those wonderful songwriters associated with Nashville but her story is an interesting one, and "Dream Baby" was my favorite song as a kid. Those Nashville songwriters have been writing gems just like that one all down the line. One day I'd like to go to Nashville, maybe catch a Preds game, head down to 16th Avenue and take in all of the history.

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The Predators don't have a lot of history but they do have some really good hockey players. Steve Sullivan (he of the ultimate "poetic justice" exchange with a fan years ago, do you remember it?) is healthy and effective again, Jason Arnott has always been a favorite (wish we'd drafted that guy), Shea Weber can shatter the sound barrier with his shot and Martin Erat is so good no one makes fun of his name. Their coach has no neck and everyone keeps saying they'll leave Nashville, but I hope they stay so that Amy Grant, Vince Gill and all those other gifted songwriters can enjoy the greatest game on earth.

The Edmonton Oilers made Pat Quinn angry the other day and he told them so. Possible results include a convincing win, a close but hard-fought loss, or a complete Dick Cheney.

WWWD?

This is Willie McGee, 1982 World Series. Willie McGee could fly, he was a terrific baserunner and hitter and a quality outfielder. He could kill you with a double in the gap and he could kill you stealing a base. He was a splendid ballplayer who played for the right man at the right time on the right turf in the right city.

Who can we credit for this? Whitey Herzog. I've written about him before and believe his career can teach us something once again.

Herzog had a career as a big league ballplayer but made his mark on the game in procurement, development and management (on field and off). He was with the Mets in the scouting and development department when that team was adding a Hall of Fame arm at about a once-a-year pace in the late '60s and early '70s.

When he took over in St. Louis, Herzog spent most of his first season as manager in the minor leagues, looking at his own team's prospects and checking out other minor leaguers and fringe big league players. The result was some exceptionally lopsided deals, most famous being Bob Sykes to the Yankees for Willie McGee.

But the key player for me in the career of Whitey Herzog has always been Lonnie Smith. Whitey acquired him for a tired arm and an also-ran (well, a little more than that) and many baseball people felt the Cardinals had gone crazy. Smith had a terrific bat and could run like mad, but he was also a nightmare in the outfield. He fell down a lot and was on every baseball blooper episode of the 80's. Thing was, he was so used to falling down that Lonnie became good at recovering and because of it the number of runs that it cost his team was far less than the visual evidence implied.

And that was Whitey. Joaquin Andujar goes a little mental when he doesn't pitch? Well, let's have him pitch every 4th day. Lonnie Smith falls down a lot? Well, let's make sure the CF (McGee) is a jackrabbit and can backup the play. Got a bunch of punch-and-judy hitters all over the roster? Well, let's make sure they can run so that pressure can be placed on the other team's defense and also make sure we have a #4 hitter with "hair on his ass" (Jack Clark) who can drive in all those rabbits.

Whitey Herzog's brilliance came from the belief that talent was in fact plentiful and that the key was being better than the other guy at two things: evaluating talent and using incomplete players in roles where they could succeed and making certain that said player's weaknesses were addressed by other roster players. He did it all the time. I don't think he had 5 guys who had 90mph fastballs but they could throw slop up there (remember Danny Cox?) and be successful.

Whitey never got too attached to any one player, the only one I remember him being upset about leaving was Jack Clark. But he had a terrific bunch of men playing hard for the Cardinals all through the 1980's and many of them were acquired for 10 cents on the dollar and cashed in millions after Whitey applied their skills to his concept of "team." He was brilliant.

The ideas of Whitey Herzog can be applied to a team like the Oilers in an "accidentally accomplished" manner. I don't think anyone in the Oilers front office can hold Whitey's jockstrap but there are absolutely good things happening on this hockey team. Can they sustain it? Who knows. For now, let's make a list of things that are breaking right for the club this season:

1. Dustin Penner has emerged as a real talent. Not a guy who you can play in a role, but a guy who you can build a line around and someone who can impact a hockey game when needed; that's a helluva deal.
2. Lubomir Visnovsky is a beauty player and is healthy. His partner (Smid) is improving and might have another gear.
3. Shawn Horcoff looks healthy again and he's playing well. Making a difference.
4. Sam Gagner is improving, just slightly in the boxcars but quite a bit in those secondary areas. This is a vital development for the Oilers, one of these kids has to emerge eventually as someone the team can count on to outplay that other team's best players. He's not there yet but he is developing. At age 20, Gagner looks like he might be someone.
5. Ryan Stone looks like a player.
6. Ryan Potulny may be good enough to play a role even when everyone returns.
7. Gilbert Brule can score goals.
8. Jeff Deslauriers has had success at the NHL level.

Anything else? It's important to remember that not all of these developments will stick. Deslauriers' SP could slide into the ocean, Brule could stop scoring or Dustin Penner might regress. But it's also true that some of the negatives right now (Hemsky's injury, O'Sullivan's play) will likely turnaround too and that a new list of positives will emerge next season.

The Oilers still have holes and they still have those putrid contracts and they still have a management team that lacks the gumption of Whitey Herzog when it comes to making change. But there are things that make you believe this team can contend soon. The Sam Gagner development is a key item for this team moving forward, as it appears that Andrew Cogliano is not destined to join him on the next "Weight-Smyth-Marchant" run for these Edmonton Oilers.

I wish Whitey knew about hockey, or had a cousin who grew up in Canada.

Quinn not exactly "Captain Happy"

Pat Quinn was in exceptional form last night after the game (it's on the Oilers website). I think he's an excellent coach (as was the last one) and this frustration has a lot to do with youth and so many forwards with the same skill set.

I also believe that with Denis Grebeshkov coming back the time is right for a trade. One of Souray, Visnovsky, Gilbert or Grebeshkov is probably headed out of town sooner than later in exchange for a "complete" forward and it may also cost the club Andrew Cogliano.

Which defender should be dealt? I've always felt Souray was the most obvious choice and have been praying that Lubo stays (on this team--now without Hemsky) just for the entertainment value.

Will they make a trade? I've been calling for one since 2006 summer for a two-way center so don't hold your breath, and yet this team is crazy out of balance (again) and OTC is getting grumpy.

We'll see.

Kings at Oilers, G33, 09-10

When it comes to ugly, the Los Angeles Kings have always been at the front of the line. Their original Kings logo used a Queen's crown because the guy they sent to find a photo didn't know the difference. They used to ship out first round picks for aging, overpaid NHL stars every season and they lost a lot of hockey games.

Original owner Jack Kent Cooke bought the franchise rights thinking that the many hundreds of thousands of transplanted Canadians would love to have a local hockey team. They stayed away from his lovely new Forum (built in a terrible area of town) in droves, causing the classic line from Cooke ("now I know why all those Canadians moved to LA: to get away from hockey!") and sealing the reputation of a sad-sack bunch despite the climate and scenery.

Through the years the team did have some splendid players: Widing, Vachon, Dionne, Simmer, Taylor, Duchesne and then 99's arrival which changed the team forever. Luc Robitaille was probably the best player they ever drafted but I'll tell you there's some competition for that title just beginning their NHL careers. Those men are in the city tonight.
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Los Angeles is a quality hockey team, at or near the top of their division and conference. They are flat out loaded with young talent at all positions and their GM has sprinkled in quality and experience without mortgaging the future. 20 years ago LA would make some bonehead play for a starting goalie and send away a major piece of the future. It looks like those days are gone.

The Oilers are home and dry after a stunning road trip. They've got goalies and defensemen with bad backs and they've got skilled men playing like they can't hit the ocean, plus they've got two goalies with very little experience as the 1-2 combo. And yet they've been winning. The #1 line is once again changed from the last time it worked (now Gagner-Penner-Brule) but with Hemsky gone and Horcoff working with others that unit seems to be catching lightning in a bottle.

It's time to lock Corsi in another room and cheer like hell for the home team. Another 5 wins and the Edmonton Oilers will be close to being near a position that isn't far from the teams who are challenging for the playoffs. It's pretty damn exciting!!!

Bulin Wall Crumbling?

There's a rumor on the Al Gore this afternoon that Nikolai Khabibulin's injury is so severe he might miss the rest of the season.

There's also speculation that his career may be over. On the heels of the major signing this summer--which had some risk based on age and term--this would have to be considered ghastly news for Steve Tambellini.

It leaves a gaping hole, the money is guaranteed and the cap hit is real and it is spectacular.

There's nowhere to hide on this one.

2009 Winter Top 20

The current crop of Edmonton Oiler prospects has a quality winger at the top, a plethora of defenders and centermen and just a couple of goaltenders. It lacks skill wingers and (Thank GOD!) undersized forwards. The procurement department that has produced Hemsky, Stoll, Greene, Gagner and Cogliano still has some bullets in the chamber this decade. The kid at the top might be special.

1. Magnus Paarjavi-Svensson might be the best left winger drafted by this organization since Ryan Smyth in 1994 and is certainly the third in a trio of quality choices since the turn of the century (Hemsky, Gagner).
2. Jordan Eberle is easily the most famous prospect in the system and his claim to fame is the most difficult thing to do in hockey: score goals. He may not be on this list next December.
3. Riley Nash has a wide range of skills and could make the big leagues in any number of roles. The safest bet is as a two-way player with enough skill to play in the top 6, a rare item in Oiler nation.
4. Chris Vande Velde is a rugged center with some offensive ability and secondary skills. Oiler fans looking for the next good faceoff man should make note of his ability in this area.
5. Theo Peckham has a mean streak and a willingness to drop the gloves seldom found in an Oiler prospect who can actually play a position. As with all defenders he's learning the pro game over an extended period but is the most promising blue in the organization.
6. Linus Omark had a bunch of small skill forwards ahead of him on the organizational depth chart but is at this point the best option available to the organization (outside the NHL). His arrival could come next fall.
7. Jeff Petry came from a long way back to establish himself as a legit option for the NHL. His wide range of skills puts him near the top of Edmonton's list of quality D prospects.
8. Taylor Chorney has played in the NHL this season and appears to be on the verge of staying for good. His skating ability and improved decision making may mean he'll have a long career in the show.
9. Teemu Hartikainen has established himself as a solid prospect and if he can improve his skating the Oilers will have uncovered another gem in Finland.
10. Anton Lander is playing major minutes in the SEL and carving out a reputation for being a quality checking center. The question is offense but he has some ability.
11. Johan Motin appears to have arrived in North America with steady feet and quickly became and established hand in Springfield. His minor league education may be shorter than a few of the higher picks.
12. Devan Dubnyk has been playing in front of poor teams for most of his career, but this season he's among the AHL's better stoppers. He made his NHL debut earlier in the season and this might be his final season in the minors.
13. Philippe Cornet is the second of the "minute men" on the Oilers prospect list. He's an impact player in the Q and might be one of those forwards who slips through the cracks and has a career despite being drafted in the 130's.
14. Ryan Stone is the only prospect on the list Edmonton traded for after he was drafted. Stone's impact on the Oilers has been significant and although he's unlikely to be on this list next year credit is due Steve Tambellini for getting a solid role player via trade.
15. Alex Plante shows us just how difficult it is to learn defense at the pro level. Oiler fans knew he was a project and he is playing some tough minutes on the farm. His ETA may lag behind fellow draftees Gagner and Nash but he remains a quality prospect.
16. Toni Rajala is the third small winger on this year's list and is the farthest from the show. Still, he's scoring well despite a TC injury and adjusting to North America.
17. Cody Wild is in Springfield working his way up the depth chart and supplying the Falcons with a viable powerplay quarterback. His biggest hurdle may be the Oilers organization.
18. Colin McDonald improved his foot speed and flourished after Rob Daum asked him to be a checker. The Oilers don't have many players of his type in the organization and with the plethora of injuries at that slot (two-way winger with size who can penalty kill) McDonald might be back in the show soon.
19. Olivier Roy is the organization's youngest goalie and has a season and a half in junior to show his stuff. Among the places he can do it might be the World Junior's this Christmastime.
20. Vyacheslav Trukhno has a nice range of skills so he makes the end of the list over a few pluggers and teenagers. There is some urgency for him though, as his North American hockey career could be coming to and end if his struggles continue.
21. Troy Hesketh almost made the list but I couldn't decide if he was driving the bus or on it playing for a ridiculous Minnetonka club.
22. Ryan O'Marra was once described as a player who "could do it all" by Redline report but a series of injuries and development issues slowed his career. He's having a solid year in Springfield and was recalled earlier in the fall by Edmonton to make his NHL debut.
23. Milan Kytnar has fallen quite a bit, mostly due to his lack of offense in junior. He's 20 years old and needs to be much better offensively at that level.
24. Kyle Bigos is having a solid NCAA debut at Merrimack College and should certainly be considered a legit NHL prospect based on math and reports on his play.
25. Geoff Paukovich earns honorable mention for playing a physical style and helping on the PK in Springfield.

• Jeff Deslauriers graduated from the list, so his last ranking came in the summer. He was an Oilers prospect from June 2002 through fall 2009.
• Rob Schremp mercifully retires from the list and is in the NHL with the Islanders.
• Josef Hrabal is off the list but still plays in Europe, I wouldn't write him off as a prospect yet.
• Liam Reddox was on the prospects list last winter but has played enough NHL games to graduate as a prospect.

It's easy to forget just how much turnover there has been in the last few months. Tyler Spurgeon, Mathieu Roy, Tim Sestito, Stephane Goulet and others are no longer in the organization (remember Jonas Almtorp? Fredrik Johansson?) and the turnover is likely to continue this summer.

Why? The number of college kids (Nash, Petry, Vande Velde) and Europeans (Omark, Lander) who'll join Eberle and Cornet at the pro level is going to force prospects off the Springfield roster.

Finally, this is an excellent list. The Oilers graduated Sam Gagner and Andrew Cogliano in the fall of 2007 and there's a chance they'll have two more first round picks join the big club (MPS and Eberle) next fall. I hope you enjoyed reading the list, I enjoyed your input.